TransUnion Forecasts Loan Growth

- The forecast projects strong growth in unsecured personal loans, which are expected to increase by 11.2% in 2026, marking a third consecutive year of annual growth for that sector. - Mortgage originations are also predicted to rise, with purchase loans growing by 4.0% and refinances by 4.2%, continuing a rebound from recent record-low levels. - In contrast, auto loan originations are expected to decrease by 1.5% after a strong 2025, a year in which consumers accelerated purchases to get ahead of anticipated tariffs and the expiration of EV tax credits. - Credit card originations are forecasted to see modest growth of 2.0%, a slowdown following near-record expansion in 2025. - While lending is growing, delinquency rates are also seeing slight increases; 60+ day mortgage delinquencies are projected to hit 1.65% and auto delinquencies are expected to reach 1.54% by the end of 2026. - Michele Raneri, head of U.S. research at TransUnion, stated that after years of credit behaviors influenced by high inflation and interest rates, the market is showing signs of a "return to more traditional growth." - The forecast comes as the median VantageScore saw a year-over-year decline for the first time in several years in late 2025, dropping 2 points to 711, indicating a subtle shift in overall consumer credit health.