McKinsey pegs China luxury $80–90bn

McKinsey and Fashion Business Review said in a report released on September 2 that China’s luxury market is currently about $60 billion and could grow to $80 billion-$90 billion by 2030 if annual expansion holds at 4% to 6%. The report, cited by JRJ and Guandian, said China would outpace the United States and Europe on that measure even as the industry settles into what it described as a slower, more moderate growth phase. The same report said Chinese disposable income is expected to rise 3.8% annually between 2025 and 2030, and that consumer confidence could recover within two to three years. Beauty, footwear, handbags and jewelry were identified as categories likely to show that rebound first. McKinsey’s broader 2026 luxury outlook places China and the United States at the center of sector growth through the end of the decade. (finance.jrj.com.cn) The consultancy said the global luxury market could reach $700 billion by 2030, growing 4% to 6% a year. ### Why does the $80 billion-$90 billion target matter? China’s projected $80 billion-$90 billion market size matters because it implies steady expansion from today’s roughly $60 billion base rather than a sharp rebound. (finance.jrj.com.cn) JRJ and Guandian, both citing the McKinsey-Fashion Business Review study, said China’s expected 2030 growth rate is faster than the 3% to 5% forecast for the United States and the 2% to 4% pace for Europe. (mckinsey.com) McKinsey said in its June 29 report that the United States remains the largest luxury market by sales, while China is expected to be among the fastest-growing through 2030. That framing helps explain why brands continue to treat China as a core market even after a weaker recent period. ### What is McKinsey saying about Chinese consumers right now? (finance.jrj.com.cn) The report surveyed more than 2,000 luxury clients in China and the United States, according to McKinsey. It said the market is becoming more fragmented and that consumer expectations are shifting across desirability, exclusivity, moments and discovery. JRJ and Guandian said emotional connection ranked first in brand choice among both Chinese and U.S. luxury consumers. (mckinsey.com) The same reports said Chinese consumers placed more weight on logos, shopping experience and social buzz, while U.S. consumers put more emphasis on value alignment and creative innovation. McKinsey separately said emotional connection is overtaking status as a driver of desire in both markets. (mckinsey.com) That finding shifts attention from pricing and scarcity alone toward how brands build relevance with clients. ### Why are experience and clienteling getting more attention? McKinsey’s report said luxury demand is being reshaped by “moments” and “discovery,” alongside exclusivity and desirability. (finance.jrj.com.cn) The consultancy’s framing, together with the September 2 Chinese reports, points to shopping experience as a measurable part of brand choice rather than a marketing add-on. (mckinsey.de) SCMP, citing the same McKinsey and Business of Fashion research, said aspirational spending, emotional connection and experience are reshaping the sector. That aligns with the report’s recommendation, relayed by JRJ and Guandian, that luxury brands strengthen emotional ties and experience-led offerings to navigate a slower market. (mckinsey.com) ### What else in the report stood out? JRJ and Guandian said 63% of aspiration-driven Chinese luxury consumers who use AI do so for “exploration,” compared with 47% in the United States. The reports did not present that as a forecast for sales, but they did highlight a difference in how clients search, compare and engage before buying. McKinsey’s June 29 publication said the sector’s future will depend on how brands respond market by market. (scmp.com) The next benchmark for investors and brands will be whether the expected confidence recovery in China appears over the next two to three years, particularly in beauty, footwear, handbags and jewelry, the categories named in the September 2 reports. (mckinsey.com) (finance.jrj.com.cn)