AI Pioneer Hinton: 'Train as a Plumber'
Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel laureate often called the "Godfather of AI," has advised young people to train as plumbers in a world with superintelligence. He argued that AI is poised to disrupt knowledge-based work much faster than it will impact physical trades. Hinton's comments highlight a growing debate about the future of work and AI's societal impact.
- Hinton specified that "mundane intellectual labor" is most at risk, predicting AI assistants will allow one person to do the work previously done by ten. He has identified paralegals and call center workers as roles he would be "terrified" to have right now. - The core of his reasoning is that AI and robotics will not be proficient at complex physical manipulation for a long time, making hands-on trades a safer career bet. Plumbing, for example, requires dexterity and problem-solving in unpredictable physical environments that robots cannot yet handle. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects steady growth for skilled trades, with jobs for plumbers and pipefitters expected to grow 4% through 2034, a rate faster than the average for many other occupations. - This demand is intensified by a labor shortage, where for every two new workers entering the skilled trades, five experienced ones are retiring. Projections for 2025 indicated a need for half a million new skilled trade workers. - Hinton’s warning about knowledge work is already reflected in some tech hiring trends. A SignalFire report found the percentage of new graduate hires at companies like Google and Meta dropped from 25% in 2023 to just 7% in 2024, citing AI as a significant factor. - Other tech leaders echo parts of Hinton's outlook. Elon Musk has stated that physical jobs will last longer than digital desk jobs, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues that people won't lose their jobs to AI, but to "someone using AI." - Hinton believes the massive financial investments in AI are primarily aimed at replacing human labor to achieve profitability. This is highlighted by the fact that major AI companies are taking on trillions in infrastructure costs while still losing billions in revenue. - He has also expressed concern that even if displaced workers receive a universal basic income, the loss of meaningful work would be the most immediate threat to human happiness.
