Six forces reshaping restaurants

Restaurants are entering 2026 with traffic still soft and a new list of pressures that now stretches far beyond food and labor costs. Technomic told executives this week that war, cannabis, weight-loss drugs, an aging population and shifting federal nutrition advice are all hitting the business at once. (restaurantbusinessonline.com) At the Restaurant Leadership Conference in Phoenix on April 21, Technomic said industry traffic fell 0.8% in 2025, roughly matching 2024. The firm said traffic was strong in January and February 2026, then slowed to flat in March as the war in Iran started affecting consumer costs. (restaurantbusinessonline.com) The National Restaurant Association still expects U.S. restaurant and foodservice sales to reach $1.55 trillion in 2026 and employment to hit 15.8 million jobs. But it said operators are facing persistent cost pressure, cautious consumer spending and continued difficulty hiring experienced managers and chefs. (restaurant.org) Technomic tied one of the biggest near-term risks to the Iran war and its effect on fuel and inflation. The firm said the Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed average U.S. gas prices above $4 a gallon, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its 2026 U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2%. (restaurantbusinessonline.com) (cnbc.com) Another force is appetite itself. About 12% of U.S. adults now say they are currently taking a glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, drug such as Ozempic or Wegovy, and CNBC reported that users consume 21% fewer calories on average, citing KPMG. (kff.org) (cnbc.com) Restaurants are already adjusting to that shift with smaller portions, higher-protein dishes, more fiber and hydration-focused drinks. JPMorgan told CNBC that wider GLP-1 use could cut $30 billion to $55 billion in annual food-and-beverage sales by 2030. (cnbc.com) Cannabis policy is moving into the same planning conversation, especially for bars and restaurants trying to offset weaker alcohol demand. Bar & Restaurant reported this month that THC beverages generated an estimated $1 billion to $1.3 billion in legal sales in 2024, while the Rockefeller Institute said 40 states now allow medical or adult-use cannabis in some form. (barandrestaurant.com) (rockinst.org) That opening is uneven. The Rockefeller Institute said April 20 that 2026 is also bringing repeal efforts, rollbacks and new barriers, and a federal appropriations law passed in 2025 is set to narrow which hemp-derived products can still be sold as “hemp” starting in November 2026. (rockinst.org) (natlawreview.com) The customer base is changing, too. McKinsey said older diners, especially Gen X and baby boomers in low- and middle-income households, pulled back the most on restaurant and delivery spending, while high-income boomers stayed more loyal to full-service restaurants. (mckinsey.com) The labor pool is aging in the opposite direction. The Restaurant Association said nearly three-quarters of operators plan to hire in 2026, but a shrinking 16-to-24-year-old population is making the traditional entry-level labor pipeline smaller. (restaurant.org) Technomic added one more variable from Washington: new U.S. dietary guidance that emphasizes protein and healthy fats more than grains and sugars. The firm said restaurants now have to price, staff and build menus for a market where fuel shocks, drug-driven appetite changes and older diners are all reshaping the same meal. (restaurantbusinessonline.com)