Global energy shock
- Reporters and analysts warned of a global energy shock that removed roughly 600 million barrels of supply. - U.S. retail gas jumped about 47% since December, and inflation pressures were described as approaching 4%. - The supply shock and price moves are being discussed as a multi‑sector risk that could feed through to manufacturing and logistics costs (economictimes.indiatimes.com) (x.com).
The oil market lost about 10.1 million barrels a day in March, the International Energy Agency said, the biggest supply disruption in its records. (iea.org) The International Energy Agency said global supply fell to 97 million barrels a day in March from a much higher prewar level after attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported on April 10 that analysts expected the 2026 market to swing to a 750,000-barrel-a-day deficit after the conflict began on February 28. (iea.org) (newsbreak.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow shipping lane for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, and Reuters said around 136 million barrels of crude and products were still stuck in the Gulf even after a ceasefire announcement. The International Energy Agency said flows through the strait had fallen to about 3.8 million barrels a day from roughly 20 million before the crisis. (newsbreak.com) (straitstimes.com) That shock has already hit fuel buyers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put regular gasoline at $4.044 a gallon on April 20, up 90.3 cents from a year earlier, while California was at $5.648 and Washington state at $5.225. (eia.gov) U.S. inflation has started to reflect the move. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% from a year earlier, with gasoline up 21.2% in the month and accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly increase in the all-items index. (bls.gov) The pressure is not limited to pump prices. The International Energy Agency said refineries in the Middle East and Asia cut runs by around 6 million barrels a day in April, tightening supplies of diesel, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks used in manufacturing. (iea.org) The price gap between paper markets and physical cargoes shows how tight the system became. The International Energy Agency said North Sea Dated crude was trading around $130 a barrel at the time of its April 14 report, while Brent futures on April 21 were near $96 and had fallen from a March peak above $119. (iea.org) (markets.ft.com) Governments have already used emergency stockpiles to slow the squeeze. The International Energy Agency said members including the United States, Japan and Germany released a record 400 million barrels from reserves in March, while its base case still assumes most regular Middle East flows resume by midyear. (straitstimes.com) (iea.org) Markets have eased since the ceasefire headlines, but the agency still says restoring production and shipping will take time, and Reuters said analysts expect the sharpest deficit in the second quarter at about 3 million barrels a day. The story now is whether reopened lanes move enough real barrels, fast enough, to keep an oil shock from turning into a broader price shock. (bloomberg.com) (newsbreak.com)
