Freight squeeze and import slump
- Importers face higher fuel costs and compressed container volumes, squeezing landed costs for low‑value goods. - Global Port Tracker put March imports at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year‑over‑year. - That mix of higher fuel and lower volumes increases freight pass-throughs and supplier pressure on pricing (cpapracticeadvisor.com).
U.S. importers are getting squeezed from both sides: fewer containers are coming in, and the cost of moving each one is rising. (nrf.com) The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said major U.S. ports were projected to handle 1.97 million twenty-foot equivalent units in March 2026, down 8.3% from a year earlier. February came in at 1.95 million TEU, also below 2025 levels. (cpapracticeadvisor.com) Fuel is the new pressure point in that equation. NRF said on April 8 that the conflict around Iran was not yet cutting U.S. container volumes in a major way, but it was pushing up fuel costs for ocean carriers worldwide. (nrf.com) Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates said the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz was lifting ship-fuel prices even though little U.S. container cargo comes directly from the region. He said higher fuel costs raise the price of shipping each container for imports and exports and then feed through to end users. (nrf.com) The volume drop is arriving on top of a tariff-heavy spring. NRF said President Donald Trump announced a temporary 10% global import duty in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the Federal Register published that proclamation on February 25. (nrf.com) (federalregister.gov) The White House also imposed new Section 232 tariffs on patented pharmaceutical products and ingredients on April 2, with the proclamation later published in the Federal Register on April 9. NRF said those moves added to trade-policy uncertainty that was already weighing on import planning. (whitehouse.gov) (federalregister.gov) (nrf.com) For low-value goods, that combination is especially punishing because freight is a bigger share of the final landed cost. When container volumes fall, carriers have less cargo over which to spread fixed voyage costs, making fuel surcharges and rate pass-throughs harder for importers to avoid. (cpapracticeadvisor.com) (nrf.com) NRF had already warned in February that first-half 2026 imports would likely fall to 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million TEU a year earlier. At that point, March had been forecast at 1.89 million TEU; by mid-April, the tracker’s March projection had been revised up to 1.97 million TEU, but it still pointed to a sharp annual decline. (nrf.com) (cpapracticeadvisor.com) Retailers say the problem is not just any single tariff line or shipping lane. Jonathan Gold of NRF said disruptions can ripple through the supply chain through rerouted vessels, equipment getting out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers, and rising gasoline prices that leave consumers with less money to spend. (nrf.com) The near-term question is whether fuel pressure eases before import demand does more damage to volumes. As of April 20, the freight story is still the same one importers started the month with: softer cargo flows, higher transport costs, and less room to absorb either. (nrf.com) (cpapracticeadvisor.com)
