Historical model says Bitcoin could top $100,000

NewsBTC published a May 23 report built around two analyst calls that pointed in opposite directions on Bitcoin’s near-term path but aligned on a later rebound. The article said analyst Chain Mind argued Bitcoin had not yet reached a cycle bottom because it had not touched the weekly EMA300, while analyst Kaleo said the broader plan for Bitcoin still included a move above $100,000 later in 2026. At the time, Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$70,000s after failing to hold above $80,000, according to market data cited by crypto outlets and CoinDesk. CoinDesk separately reported on May 23 that Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors said Bitcoin had broken out of its longest stretch of underperformance against stocks and bonds. ### Which historical pattern is this model pointing to? Chain Mind’s argument, as summarized by NewsBTC, centered on the weekly EMA300. The report said he wrote on X that Bitcoin had “never bottomed without touching” that level, citing earlier cycle lows in 2020 and 2022 when the price tagged the weekly EMA300 before bottoming. NewsBTC said the analyst used that history to argue that Bitcoin’s rebound from about $60,000 did not complete a bottoming process because the moving average was never reached. (newsbtc.com) The May 23 article said that if the same pattern repeated, Bitcoin could fall to around $58,000. NewsBTC also said Chain Mind compared the current setup with the 2022 bear market after what he described as a rejection at the 200-day moving average near $82,000. ### Why are 2015 and 2019 part of the conversation? The broader idea behind these cycle comparisons is that Bitcoin analysts often map current drawdowns against prior post-peak resets. (newsbtc.com) The briefing material tied that argument to earlier cycle bottoms in 2015 and 2019, while NewsBTC’s published article itself focused more directly on 2020 and 2022 touches of the weekly EMA300. In both versions, the method is the same: compare the current correction with earlier periods when Bitcoin fell to long-term support before starting a multi-month advance. CaptainAltcoin, cited in the background briefing, described a separate historical indicator with what it called a “100% success rate” near prior cycle bottoms. That article was not the same model, but it showed the same market habit of using repeated cycle signals to frame late-2026 upside targets. (newsbtc.com) ### Where does the $100,000 target come from? Kaleo’s forecast, as quoted by NewsBTC, did not call for an immediate rebound. The article said he expected a retest in the lower $70,000 range, then a recovery to roughly $80,000 to $90,000, followed by a summer trading range. After that, NewsBTC said, Kaleo expected Bitcoin to rally above $100,000 and reach a new all-time high in the fall and winter. (captainaltcoin.com) That sequence matters because the bullish target in the article came after another possible decline, not instead of one. NewsBTC presented the $100,000-plus move as the later stage of a longer cycle rather than a call for a straight-line recovery from current prices. ### What were other market participants saying at the same time? (newsbtc.com) CoinDesk reported on May 23 that Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, said Bitcoin was ready to outperform stocks and bonds again after a long stretch of lagging traditional assets. That was a macro argument, not a chart-based bottom call, but it added to the case for a later recovery. (newsbtc.com) CoinDesk’s price page showed Bitcoin at about $76,813 late on May 23. NewsBTC said bearish pressure had returned after Bitcoin failed to hold above the psychological $80,000 level. ### What should readers watch next? The next concrete markers in this setup are the support levels and timing windows named in the May 23 report. NewsBTC said Chain Mind’s framework implied possible downside toward roughly $58,000, while Kaleo’s path called for a lower-$70,000 retest, a summer range around $80,000 to $90,000, and then a fall-and-winter push above $100,000. (coindesk.com) Any update to those calls would most likely appear first in the analysts’ X posts and in follow-up market reports from NewsBTC and other crypto outlets. (coindesk.com) (newsbtc.com)