Fed: hikes unlikely
PIMCO’s Richard Clarida says the bar is high for another Fed hike and cautioned against tightening into supply shocks (youtube.com). BlackRock’s Rick Rieder went further, urging cuts to roughly a ~3% “equilibrium” rate and arguing current policy hurts small businesses and debt servicing (youtube.com). Market indicators—slowing PMIs and a tightening Financial Conditions Index—are already pricing in cut odds, adding near‑term tail risks for risk assets (x.com) (x.com).
Richard Clarida joined Bloomberg Surveillance on March 25, 2026 as PIMCO’s global economic advisor and a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, speaking from PIMCO’s event schedule that week. (omny.fm)) On the program Clarida flagged labor-market signals, citing “virtually zero” private‑sector job creation over the last year alongside a still‑low unemployment rate as reasons for caution about further policy tightening. (dailymotion.com)) Rick Rieder renewed his public comments on policy in a March interview in Dallas while serving as BlackRock’s CIO of global fixed income, and he previously set out a roughly 3% policy anchor in a November 7, 2025 Bloomberg interview. (bloomberg.com)) Rieder oversees a very large fixed‑income franchise—BlackRock’s fixed‑income business manages trillions of dollars in assets, a scale he cited in public remarks this year when discussing debt dynamics. (citywire.com)) S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI fell to 51.4 in March 2026 from 51.9 in February 2026, marking the weakest quarterly performance since late 2023 and a second straight monthly slowdown. (tradingeconomics.com)) The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index rose to −0.48 in the week ending March 20, 2026, signaling a move toward tighter-than‑average financial conditions relative to recent weeks. (chicagofed.org)) Market‑implied pricing shows the Fed was overwhelmingly expected to hold in March (roughly 95–98% probability) while assigning a mid‑teens percent chance of a cut by the April/May window—numbers aggregated from CME/FedWatch and market‑implied trackers. (phemex.com)) Equity and credit stress metrics have already risen: the CBOE VIX moved into the mid‑20s this week and market reports show investment‑grade spreads near ~120 basis points with high‑yield spreads approaching ~470 basis points, underscoring elevated short‑term volatility and credit risk. (tradingeconomics.com))
