Experts warn Memorial Day gas spike possible

Irish Star reported on Tuesday that Memorial Day drivers could face another move higher in gasoline prices as crude markets react to geopolitical risk and millions of Americans prepare to travel. AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25, including 39.1 million by car. GasBuddy said on May 18 that the national average gasoline price stood at $4.47 a gallon, up 45.2 cents from a month earlier and $1.33 from a year earlier. The warning is not that prices have already surged again everywhere, but that oil volatility has left pump prices exposed heading into one of the busiest driving weekends of the year. ### Why are analysts talking about a Memorial Day gas spike now? GasBuddy said on May 18 that the national average price of gasoline fell 1 cent over the previous week, but Patrick De Haan, the company’s head of petroleum analysis, said “any sustained increase in oil prices could begin pushing retail fuel prices higher again in the weeks ahead.” He tied that risk to fading optimism that diplomacy between the United States and Iran would ease supply concerns. (newsroom.aaa.com) WTI crude was at $105.08 a barrel in early May 18 trading and Brent crude was at $109.01, both above levels from a week earlier, according to GasBuddy. The company said markets had rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium as traders watched negotiations, military rhetoric and shipping risks. ### How much driving demand is expected over the holiday? AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, accounting for 87% of holiday travelers. (gasbuddy.com) The group said that sets a new Memorial Day weekend record and comes even with gas prices above year-earlier levels. Stacey Barber, AAA’s vice president of travel, said “travel demand remains strong” and that many Americans are still prioritizing leisure trips during holiday breaks. AAA also said last Memorial Day’s national average for regular gasoline was $3.17 a gallon and that current pump prices are the highest since the summer of 2022. The organization said it handled more than 350,000 roadside assistance calls over the 2025 holiday weekend, including for empty fuel tanks. ### What does the broader oil outlook say? The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its May 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook that global oil markets are in a period of “heightened volatility and uncertainty” because of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (newsroom.aaa.com) The agency said nearly 20% of global oil supply had moved through that chokepoint before military action began on Feb. 28. EIA said Brent crude averaged $117 a barrel in April, up $46 from February, and that it now assumes the strait will remain effectively closed through late May, with flows slowly starting to resume in late May or early June. (newsroom.aaa.com) The agency said the disruption has reduced available oil supplies and tightened near-term markets. ### How high could prices go? WRGB, citing GasBuddy’s 2026 Summer Travel Survey released Wednesday, reported that the company expects the national average gasoline price to reach $4.48 a gallon on Memorial Day, up from $3.14 a year earlier. (eia.gov) The same report said gasoline could average $4.80 a gallon over the summer travel season from Memorial Day through Labor Day, with higher prices possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much of the summer. Patrick De Haan said in that report that “this is the most volatile summer at the pump in years.” GasBuddy also said 67% of Americans told the company gas prices are affecting their driving plans, while 36% said rising costs are causing them to take fewer road trips. (cbs6albany.com) ### What can drivers actually do before they leave? GasBuddy said 83% of travelers plan to use its app to find lower prices and that most are willing to drive two to three miles out of their way to save money at the pump. AAA urged drivers to check battery condition, tire pressure and fluids before leaving, steps that can reduce breakdown risk and help fuel economy. (cbs6albany.com) USA Today also reported on Tuesday that one analyst said prices could rise again ahead of Memorial Day weekend, while the national average held near $4.50 a gallon. That leaves motorists watching daily station prices rather than a single national number as the holiday approaches. The next scheduled federal checkpoint is June 9, when the Energy Information Administration is due to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook. (cbs6albany.com) GasBuddy continues to publish weekly gasoline updates as travel begins between May 21 and May 25. (eia.gov) (usatoday.com)