Airfares likely stay high
Expect ticket prices to stay elevated: carriers cite strong demand, higher jet fuel costs, and constrained capacity — British Airways has expanded India summer flights to meet demand, Delta has pulled planned capacity growth and lowered near‑term profit expectations, and industry warnings say a systemic EU jet‑fuel crunch could hit within about three weeks if Hormuz supply routes stay disrupted. ( )
Airline tickets are getting squeezed from both ends at once: travelers are still filling planes, and the fuel that powers those planes has become much more expensive in a matter of weeks. On April 7, CNBC reported United States jet fuel had jumped from about $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2. (cnbc.com) Jet fuel is usually an airline’s biggest cost after labor, and CNBC reported in March that it often makes up 20% or more of total expenses. When that line item spikes, airlines either raise fares, cut flying, or do both. (cnbc.com) That is why the industry’s latest moves look contradictory only at first glance. Some airlines are adding flights where demand is strongest, while others are canceling planned growth where higher fuel bills make marginal routes less attractive. (cnbc.com) Delta Air Lines said on April 8 that it would “meaningfully reduce” near-term capacity growth, and Reuters reported the carrier pulled all planned growth from the June quarter. Reuters said Delta also warned the fuel shock tied to the Iran war would add more than $2 billion to June-quarter costs. (cnbc.com, reuters.com) When an airline removes even a few percentage points of planned seats, that matters because fares are set like hotel rooms: the last available inventory gets expensive fast. Reuters said Delta’s move cuts supply by about 3.5 percentage points from its original plan. (reuters.com) British Airways is making the opposite bet on India because those seats are still likely to sell at strong prices. Reporting on April 11 said the airline will run an extra daily Bengaluru-London Heathrow service from June 1 to October 24, taking that route to 14 weekly flights. (wn.com) British Airways had already signaled this shift in October, saying it planned a third daily Delhi-Heathrow flight in 2026, subject to approvals. In other words, airlines are not adding flights everywhere; they are concentrating scarce aircraft on routes where demand is deep enough to absorb higher costs. (britishairways.com) The fuel risk is not just about price anymore. CNBC reported on April 10 that Europe’s airport industry warned the European Union a “systemic jet fuel shortage” could become reality within about three weeks if stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume. (cnbc.com) The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, and CNBC reported oil flows there averaged 20.9 million barrels a day in 2023. When tankers slow down in a choke point that small, the shock moves from crude oil into refined products like jet fuel, and then into airline schedules and ticket prices. (cnbc.com) Even the ceasefire news has not fixed that pipeline. CNBC reported on April 7 that a two-week ceasefire allowed safe passage in principle, but had “not led to a breakthrough in tanker traffic so far,” which means airlines still have to plan as if fuel will stay tight. (cnbc.com) That leaves travelers with a simple near-term reality: fewer planned seats in some markets, premium pricing on the routes airlines still want to grow, and a fuel market that remains one disruption away from another jump. Until tanker traffic normalizes and airlines start restoring capacity instead of rationing it, cheap fares will be harder to find than they were at the start of 2026. (cnbc.com, reuters.com)
