Arabica rises 5.95 points; robusta +39

July arabica coffee and July ICE robusta coffee futures both finished higher on Tuesday, May 19, after recovering from early session losses, according to Barchart market commentary and contract data. Barchart said July arabica settled up 5.95 points, or 2.25%, while July ICE robusta closed up 39 points, or 1.18%. (barchart.com) The move followed roughly three weeks of declines that had pushed prices into what Barchart described as oversold territory. (barchart.com) The rebound came even as the market was still digesting bearish supply expectations from Brazil. Barchart said coffee prices had initially moved lower on Tuesday, with arabica touching a 1.5-year nearest-futures low and robusta falling to a one-month low before reversing higher. (ice.com) The same note said expectations for a larger Brazilian 2026/27 crop had weighed on prices in recent sessions. ### Why did coffee futures turn higher after falling earlier in the session? Barchart said the immediate trigger was technical buying and fund short-covering after the recent selloff. (barchart.com) Its Tuesday commentary said the three-week decline had left prices heavily oversold, prompting traders to buy back short positions and helping both contracts erase early losses. Tuesday’s reversal was a futures-market move rather than a fresh change in crop forecasts. Barchart continued to cite larger Brazil harvest estimates from Coffee Trading Academy and Marex Group Plc as a source of pressure on prices, even as the contracts rose on the day. (barchart.com) ### What are ICE inventories showing? ICE exchange stocks were the other support cited in the rebound. Barchart said ICE robusta inventories had fallen to a two-year low of 3,631 lots last Friday, while ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.75-month low of 458,735 bags on Tuesday. (barchart.com) It said those lower certified stocks had provided support for prices over the past two months. ICE’s coffee certified stock reports are the market’s reference point for those warehouse figures. ICE also lists robusta coffee futures as the benchmark contract for pricing physical robusta coffee used by producers, exporters, roasters and investors. (barchart.com) ### What is still pressuring the market despite Tuesday’s rebound? Brazil’s 2026/27 crop outlook remained the main bearish factor in Barchart’s account. Barchart cited a May 7 estimate from Coffee Trading Academy projecting Brazil’s harvest up 12% year over year to 71.4 million bags, and a March 19 projection from Marex Group Plc for a record 75.9 million bags. (barchart.com) Those estimates matter because Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, and larger output forecasts can weigh on both arabica and robusta pricing expectations. (ice.com) Barchart’s report framed Tuesday’s rise as a rebound inside that broader supply-driven downturn, not a break from it. ### Why do traders watch arabica and robusta separately? Arabica and robusta are traded in separate benchmark futures markets and can respond differently to changes in deliverable exchange stocks. ICE’s robusta contract is listed through ICE Futures Europe, while arabica certified stocks are tracked through ICE coffee stock reporting. (barchart.com) Barchart’s Tuesday update treated both contracts as moving on the same combination of short-covering and tighter exchange inventories. July arabica posted the larger percentage gain, while July robusta also recovered after touching an intraday low earlier in the session. (barchart.com) ### What comes next for the market? The next signals for traders are likely to come from daily ICE certified stock data and from updated Brazil crop estimates. ICE continues to publish coffee stock reports, and Barchart continues to post front-month futures commentary tied to those inventory moves. (ice.com) July coffee contracts remain the front points of focus in the current coverage. ICE’s robusta futures data page and Barchart’s arabica and robusta contract pages are where the next price moves and inventory-linked commentary are being tracked. (ice.com 1) (ice.com 2) (barchart.com)