Chip security + China capacity risk
U.S. lawmakers advanced the Chip Security Act even as industry reporting shows China scaling domestic capacity — with forecasts putting China at about 32% of global semiconductor production by 2030 — deepening export‑control and supply‑chain geopolitics that boards must navigate. ( )
House Foreign Affairs Committee voted to advance H.R.3447, the Chip Security Act, on March 26, 2026, sending the measure toward a full‑House consideration. (bloomberg.com) H.R.3447, first introduced on May 15, 2025, would require the Secretary of Commerce to issue standards for chip security mechanisms and authorize recommendations to modify export controls when products meet those standards. (congress.gov) The committee action followed a high‑profile criminal case: an indictment tied to an alleged scheme to divert Nvidia processors to Chinese buyers involving Super Micro personnel, which lawmakers cited during deliberations. (bloomberg.com) Industry reporting cited by Digitimes projects China’s semiconductor capacity share rising to roughly 32% of global production by 2030 and pegs the 2030 market at about US$1.8 trillion. (digitimes.com) Chinese ecosystem developments named in those reports include SMIC’s push to capture AI‑driven demand, JCET’s emphasis on atomic‑level advanced packaging, and a claim that Huawei’s Ascend 950PR outperforms Nvidia’s H20 by an industry‑reported multiple. (tw.stock.yahoo.com) SEMI’s capacity forecast shows advanced process capacity expanding at a projected 14% CAGR from 2025–2028 and total wafer‑fab capacity surpassing one million wafers per month in 2026 (about 1.16 million wpm), underlining the scale of near‑term supply growth. (semi.org) Parallel policy moves: the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security shifted H200/MI325X licensing from “presumption of denial” to case‑by‑case review effective mid‑January 2026, and Nvidia reported receiving Chinese purchase orders and restarting H200 production in March 2026. (introl.com)
