Travel demand still holding

United Airlines said on April 21 that travel demand is still strong enough to lift first-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street’s estimates. (cnbc.com) The airline reported adjusted earnings of $1.19 a share on $14.61 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 31, above LSEG estimates of $1.07 a share and $14.37 billion. Revenue rose from $13.21 billion a year earlier, and net income climbed to $699 million from $387 million. (cnbc.com) United said business revenue rose 14% in the quarter, premium revenue rose 14%, loyalty revenue rose 13%, and Basic Economy revenue rose 7%. The company also said it posted positive passenger unit revenue growth in every region and the best first-quarter on-time departure rate among the eight largest U.S. carriers. (united.mediaroom.com) That matters because airlines make money by filling seats at fares that outrun fuel, labor, and airport costs, and United said demand is still doing part of that work. CNBC reported Chief Executive Scott Kirby described business travel demand as “pretty amazing,” even as the airline dealt with a sharp jump in jet-fuel expense. (cnbc.com) The pressure point shifted to costs and schedule discipline. United said fuel expense increased by $340 million from a year earlier, and it now expects second-quarter fuel to average $4.30 a gallon. (united.mediaroom.com; cnbc.com) United cut its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $7 to $11 a share from $12 to $14 a share and said second-quarter adjusted earnings should come in at $1 to $2 a share. CNBC said the company tied that lower outlook to higher fuel prices after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. (cnbc.com) Management is responding by trimming flying rather than chasing growth for its own sake. United said it has already reduced planned capacity by 5 points versus its original plan, with third- and fourth-quarter capacity now expected to be flat to up about 2% from a year earlier. (united.mediaroom.com) The company said revenue should offset 40% to 50% of the fuel-price increase in the second quarter, rising to as much as 80% in the third quarter and 85% to 100% by year-end. That leaves the near-term test less about whether people want to fly and more about whether United can keep enough pricing power and operational reliability to absorb higher costs. (cnbc.com; united.mediaroom.com) United filed the results in an April 21 current report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, putting investors on notice that demand held up in the first quarter even as the airline reset expectations for the rest of 2026. (sec.gov)