Macro: Yields, Rates, Oil

Treasury yields barely moved on April 20 even after a new U.S.-Iran flare-up, a sign that bond traders were bracing for risk without calling it a full market break. (cnbc.com) CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield at about 4.256% and the 2-year at about 3.725% on Monday, with both up only modestly after a weekend in which the Strait of Hormuz was reopened and then closed again by Iran. The two-week ceasefire was also set to expire on Tuesday, April 21. (cnbc.com) The official U.S. Treasury curve put the 10-year yield at 4.26% for April 20, 2026, while Mortgage News Daily said top-tier 30-year fixed mortgage pricing was almost unchanged day to day. Its rate index moved up 0.01 percentage point and had stayed inside a 0.03-point band since April 14. (home.treasury.gov) (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Consumer mortgage quotes were holding near 6.2% at the same time. Forbes, citing Mortgage Research Center data on April 20, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.21%, close to the 6.22% level circulating in market coverage. (forbes.com) That link between Treasurys and mortgages is mechanical: home loans are priced off longer-term bond yields, so a steadier 10-year Treasury usually means less day-to-day whiplash for borrowers. Mortgage News Daily said the bigger risk for rates over the next two days was ceasefire-related volatility tied to Iran. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) (fred.stlouisfed.org) Oil was the market sending the louder signal. PBS NewsHour, citing Associated Press market data, reported that U.S. benchmark crude rose 1.9% to $64.31 a barrel and Brent crude rose 1.8% to $67.26 after the latest Iran tensions. (pbs.org) Stocks gave back some ground as energy climbed. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% on April 20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 528 points, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.7%, according to the same Associated Press report carried by PBS. (pbs.org) The reason traders watch the Strait of Hormuz so closely is simple: a large share of the world’s oil moves through that waterway. PBS reported last month that roughly a fifth of global oil passes through the strait, which turns any threat there into an inflation concern for central banks and consumers. (pbs.org) One corner of Wall Street that feels these swings directly is mortgage investing. AGNC Investment, a big mortgage real estate investment trust, told investors on April 20 that it had released first-quarter 2026 results after markets closed, as analysts focused on how rate volatility was affecting book value. (investors.agnc.com) (investing.com) For now, the bond market is acting calmer than the oil market. Yields near 4.26% and mortgages near 6.2% suggest financing costs are no longer lurching every day, even as Iran headlines keep feeding fresh volatility into energy and stocks. (home.treasury.gov) (forbes.com)