China leans into U.S. volatility

China is using a week of U.S. policy turbulence to press two messages at once: tighter political ties in Asia and faster trade growth across Africa. (nytimes.com) In Beijing on April 16, Xi Jinping told Vietnam’s To Lam that the two Communist parties should “prioritise political security,” and Chinese state media framed the visit as an upgrade in a relationship Washington cannot match on internal security. Lam’s trip, from April 14 to 17, was his first overseas visit after taking on Vietnam’s presidency alongside the party leadership. (nytimes.com) At the same time, China’s exports to Africa jumped 32.1% year on year in the first quarter to $60.66 billion, the fastest growth of any major region in Chinese customs data cited by the South China Morning Post. The gains were led by machinery and higher-tech shipments as Chinese firms looked for markets beyond the United States. (scmp.com) China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on April 16 that gross domestic product grew 5.0% in the first quarter, up from 4.5% in the last quarter of 2025 and above the 4.8% forecast in a Reuters poll. March retail sales rose 1.7% from a year earlier, while industrial output increased 5.7%, underscoring how much the rebound still depends on factories and exports more than household spending. (cnbc.com) The timing is not accidental. Beijing has spent the past year trying to hedge against a less predictable U.S. trade and security posture by deepening links with Southeast Asian neighbors, expanding sales into the Global South, and presenting itself as the steadier partner. (cfr.org, scmp.com) Vietnam is central to that effort because it sits on China’s southern border, has its own disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, and has also built closer ties with the United States. The New York Times reported that China used Lam’s visit to emphasize party-to-party and security links that run deeper than Vietnam’s defense relationship with Washington. (nytimes.com) Africa matters for a different reason: scale. Chinese government data released in June 2025 put total China-Africa trade at 2.1 trillion yuan in 2024, and Johns Hopkins University’s China Africa Research Initiative said Africa’s imports from China reached $179 billion that year, giving Beijing a large base to build on before this year’s first-quarter surge. (english.www.gov.cn, sais-cari.org) The stronger headline numbers are landing alongside new concerns for foreign business. The New York Times reported on April 14 that China issued rules allowing authorities to punish companies and executives for shifting supply chains out of the country if officials decide the moves support foreign restrictions on China. (nytimes.com) Chinese officials still say the country is opening up. The current foreign investment framework has removed manufacturing from the national negative list, but companies and advisers say national security reviews, anti-espionage enforcement and exit controls have made the practical operating environment harder to read. (debevoise.com, nytimes.com) That leaves Beijing trying to do two things at once: show neighboring governments and African buyers that China is open for deals, while showing multinationals that leaving may carry a higher price. The first-quarter data suggest the external push is working faster than confidence at home is recovering. (scmp.com, cnbc.com, nytimes.com)