ECB: don't rush hikes
ECB officials warned against rushed rate hikes even as markets price three 2026 increases — board members Patsalides and Schnabel said the baseline outlook still holds and there's little sign of wage‑price spirals. UBS nonetheless models 25bp moves in June and September but flags downside risks that could reopen cuts by 2027. (reuters.com) (investing.com)
ECB‑watch’s market dashboard shows a 64.0% probability of a 25bp hike at the April 29 Governing Council meeting and lists 53.8% as the most likely outcome for the June maintenance period at 2.50%. (ecb-watch.eu)) Independent €STR‑futures trackers convert that pricing into an implied path that equates to roughly three 25bp moves priced into 2026, a view Bloomberg summarised as traders “fully pricing” three quarter‑point hikes. (rateprobability.com)) UBS’s latest economists’ note now models two 25bp moves in June and September which would lift the ECB deposit facility rate to 2.50% under their baseline scenario. (investing.com)) A Reuters poll published this week still finds most surveyed economists expect rates to remain on hold through 2026, although just over one‑third of respondents have moved to forecast at least one hike this year. (msn.com)) ECB staff’s March macro projections assume Brent crude around $81.3 per barrel and show inflation rising above 2% in the near term before falling back to target by 2027–28, a path officials cite when urging patience to judge persistence. (ecb.europa.eu)) UBS adds a conditionality caveat: its June/September call depends on energy and growth dynamics and the bank flags downside scenarios that could reopen easing as early as 2027 if risks materialise. (investing.com))
