Maharashtra Faces Drier-Than-Usual Monsoon Warning

Maharashtra has put its administration on alert after the India Meteorological Department forecast the state would receive only 88% of its average rainfall in the 2026 southwest monsoon, according to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and officials briefed on a kharif preparedness meeting on Thursday. The forecast points to a 12% statewide shortfall, with Marathwada, western Vidarbha and parts of north Maharashtra expected to receive even less than the state average, Hindustan Times reported on May 22. Fadnavis said district-wise planning had begun to prepare for the possibility of drought-like conditions. Officials also said IMD warned of longer dry spells between rain events and a month-by-month decline in rainfall from June through September. ### Which parts of Maharashtra are expected to be hit hardest? Marathwada, western Vidarbha and parts of north Maharashtra were identified by IMD as the regions most at risk of receiving rainfall below the already reduced state average, according to officials cited in the May 22 report. That matters because those belts have repeatedly faced water stress in weak monsoon years and depend heavily on timely June-to-September rainfall for sowing and crop establishment. (hindustantimes.com) The 88% figure is a state-level average, and Fadnavis said some districts could face sharper deficits than that. He cited 2015 as a comparison point, saying Marathwada had recorded a 39% rainfall deficit in an El Niño year. ### What is driving the warning this year? IMD linked the weak-rainfall risk to El Niño conditions, Fadnavis told reporters after the meeting. (hindustantimes.com) The report said the weather pattern was developing rapidly and could weaken monsoon performance over Maharashtra. IMD’s own website shows that its long-range forecast material for the 2026 southwest monsoon season had been issued by May 21, alongside current rainfall and outlook products for the country. (hindustantimes.com) The agency’s rainfall statistics and rainfall information pages were live on May 22, though the detailed Maharashtra subdivision breakdown was not visible in the search extract reviewed here. ### Why are officials worried about more than just the total rainfall number? IMD officials told the state that long gaps between rainfall spells were likely in addition to lower cumulative rainfall, according to the May 22 report. For farmers, that can be as important as the seasonal total because kharif crops need rain at specific stages, especially around sowing and early growth. (mausam.imd.gov.in) Officials said rainfall was expected to decline with each passing month from June to September. They also said poor September soil moisture could hurt not only kharif output but, in some cases, the following rabi season because October-November sowing depends on residual moisture. ### What steps has the state government started? (hindustantimes.com) Fadnavis said the administration had been put on alert and district-wise planning had been ordered for the coming monsoon. He also held a separate meeting with bankers on crop-loan disbursal and said banks had been told not to use farmers’ CIBIL credit scores while sanctioning crop loans. (hindustantimes.com) State-level kharif contingency planning is not new in Maharashtra. In May 2025, ICAR-CRIDA and the Maharashtra agriculture department held a preparedness meeting that reviewed crop plans, seed availability, alternative crops, district-level contingencies and farmer weather advisories. That earlier exercise shows the kind of coordination the state has used when rainfall risk is elevated. (hindustantimes.com) ### What should readers watch next? June will be the first test of whether the warning translates into a weak start to the monsoon in Maharashtra. IMD’s rainfall statistics and rainfall information pages publish updated district and subdivision rainfall data, and those releases will show whether Marathwada, western Vidarbha and north Maharashtra begin the season below normal. (icar.org.in) District crop plans, loan disbursal decisions and seed-and-fertiliser availability will also be key markers as sowing begins. Fadnavis said the state had already started district-wise planning, and further briefings from the chief minister’s office, IMD and the agriculture department are likely to shape the next response steps. (hindustantimes.com) (mausam.imd.gov.in)