Islamabad hosts US–Iran talks
Senior U.S. and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad for what Reuters called ‘make-or-break’ talks aimed at stabilizing a shaky ceasefire even as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire. (reuters.com). Tehran arrived insisting prior conditions be addressed and appears internally split between hardliners who favour continuing the conflict and leaders looking to reset ties with Washington, which leaves real progress uncertain despite the high-level engagement. (bloomberg.com). Pakistan’s prime minister met each delegation separately, and Iran’s continued leverage over the Strait of Hormuz hangs over negotiations as a strategic bargaining chip. (theguardian.com) (twz.com)
Vice President J D Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Islamabad on April 11 for the highest-level United States-Iran talks since Iran’s 1979 revolution, with Pakistani officials shuttling between both sides before any face-to-face breakthrough. (apnews.com) (aljazeera.com) The meeting is happening under a ceasefire that is only about two weeks old, and that truce is already fraying because Israel and Hezbollah kept exchanging fire while Washington accused Tehran of not honoring understandings on the Strait of Hormuz. (rappler.com) (apnews.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world’s oil exports, so Iran does not need to fire a shot there to create pressure; slowing traffic is enough to squeeze tankers, insurers, and fuel prices at the same time. (nytimes.com) (twz.com) That is why these talks are not just about stopping missiles. Reuters reported there was still no sign on April 10 that Iran was lifting its near-total blockade of the strait, and that disruption had already become the worst shock to global energy flows in this crisis. (rappler.com) Pakistan is hosting because it already helped broker the temporary truce, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met the American and Iranian delegations separately on April 11 to keep the process moving even if the two sides could not quickly settle the biggest disputes themselves. (npr.org) (cnn.com) Iran came in saying old grievances had to be addressed first, which is diplomat language for “we are not reopening trade routes and resetting relations unless earlier strikes, losses, and terms are dealt with.” Bloomberg reported that split runs through Tehran itself, with hardliners pushing to keep fighting and other leaders treating Islamabad as a chance to rebuild a channel to Washington. (bloomberg.com) The American side is treating the meeting as a test of whether the ceasefire can become something more durable, but early signals were deliberately modest. United States officials said on April 11 that no agreements had been reached at the start of negotiations, which suggests both sides are still arguing over the order of concessions rather than trading them. (cbsnews.com) (cnbc.com) Lebanon is sitting inside the room even when Lebanon is not at the table. Reuters reported Lebanese officials were pushing for a temporary Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire built on the same model as the United States-Iran truce, which means any collapse in Islamabad could spill straight back into the Israel-Lebanon front. (news.tv5.com.ph) So the real question in Islamabad is not whether the United States and Iran can sign a grand bargain in one day. It is whether they can keep the Strait of Hormuz from being used as a choke point, keep Israel and Hezbollah from blowing up the truce, and keep talking long enough for a temporary ceasefire to turn into a political settlement. (aljazeera.com) (nytimes.com)
