Europe faces jet‑fuel squeeze

European airlines are warning that fuel, not demand, could become the constraint on summer flying if Middle East supply disruptions persist. (cnbc.com) CNBC reported on April 14 that analysts expect “severe” flight cuts in May and June if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, after airlines already trimmed capacity on some routes. Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said the situation could become “systemic” within three to four weeks. (cnbc.com) The supply shock starts with geography: the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The International Air Transport Association said tanker traffic there fell 70% to 80% after the conflict escalated on February 28, 2026. (iata.org) Europe is exposed because it buys a large share of its aviation fuel from the Persian Gulf. The International Air Transport Association said 25% to 30% of Europe’s jet-fuel demand comes from the Gulf, while the International Energy Agency said the region gets about 375,000 barrels a day there, equal to 75% of Europe’s net jet-fuel imports. (iata.org) (kitco.com) The immediate problem is not that every airport is dry today. The International Energy Agency said Europe avoids physical shortages if it replaces all lost Middle East volumes, but shortages could appear by June if only half is replaced. (kitco.com) The agency set a rough stress line at 23 days of demand cover in storage. Reuters reported that Europe’s stocks have stayed above 29 days since 2020, but would fall below 23 days in June under a 50% replacement scenario and by August under a 75% replacement scenario. (kitco.com) Airports and airlines are now asking Brussels for emergency steps before the peak season. Bloomberg reported that Airlines for Europe, whose members include Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and British Airways owner International Airlines Group, asked the European Union to monitor fuel availability, ease some taxes and allow Jet A fuel imports commonly used in the United States. (bloomberg.com) The warning lands as Europe’s summer schedule is already ramping up. EUROCONTROL said the network averaged 27,784 daily flights in the week of March 23 to March 29, up 2.0% from the same week in 2025, while average jet-fuel prices reached $4.73 a gallon on March 27, about double the level at the start of the year. (eurocontrol.int) Not every part of Europe faces the same risk. The International Energy Agency said Spain is a net exporter of jet fuel with stronger stocks, while Britain is the region’s largest consumer and imports 65% of its demand. (kitco.com) ING senior economist Rico Luman told CNBC the shortages first showed up in Asia, including Vietnam and Thailand, and are now “spilling over to Europe” because jet fuel is traded in a global market. If replacement cargoes do not arrive fast enough, the summer problem shifts from expensive tickets to fewer flights that can actually depart. (cnbc.com)