Bowman pencils three cuts
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said she expects three interest-rate cuts before the end of 2026 — a cautious signal that the Fed is weighing easing even as inflation and geopolitical shocks keep markets volatile. Markets are pricing in easing, but short-term bond yields and investor sentiment remain jittery as policymakers parse conflicting signals. (foxbusiness.com)
Bowman’s comments came during a Fox Business “Mornings with Maria” interview that aired March 20, 2026, where she flagged labor-market fragility and other risks tied to geopolitical shocks. (foxbusiness.com) The Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17–18 Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal‑funds projection of about 3.4% for year‑end 2026, a profile that market analysts interpreted as implying roughly one 25‑basis‑point reduction versus current policy. (federalreserve.gov) Market‑implied curves were already divergent: fed‑funds futures and pricing dashboards in mid‑March showed a gradual glide lower through late 2026 with implied midpoints near the mid‑3% range rather than a uniform three‑cut path. (rateprobability.com) Short‑term Treasuries have been volatile around the Fed cycle — the 2‑year yield jumped to about 3.845% on March 19 amid fresh labor data and Middle East tensions. (cnbc.com) Bloomberg reported a broad Treasury selloff on March 20 that lifted yields roughly 12–15 basis points across many maturities as investors re‑priced inflation and geopolitical risk into near‑term policy expectations. (bloomberg.com) Bowman has publicly broken with colleagues before: the Federal Reserve press release for the July 30, 2025 FOMC meeting shows she and Governor Christopher Waller both formally dissented, preferring a 25‑basis‑point cut at that meeting. (federalreserve.gov) Three 25‑basis‑point moves would total 75 basis points of easing, a quantum market strategists say would meaningfully alter the path of short‑term policy and asset valuations; markets earlier in the year priced a high probability that about 75 bps of cuts could occur by year‑end. (wallstreetprep.com (investors.com)) The Fed’s next regularly scheduled FOMC meeting is April 28–29, 2026, with the policy decision and press conference set for April 29, which market participants have flagged as the next formal check on whether committee projections and market pricing will re‑align. (federalreserve.gov)
