Hormuz: oil above $100

Oil traded above $100 a barrel again this week as the U.S. and Iran remained deadlocked over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (cnbc.com) Brent crude rose above $103 on April 23 and topped $106 on April 24 as tanker traffic through the strait slowed sharply and traders priced in a longer disruption. Reuters, cited by multiple outlets, tied the move directly to stalled talks, shipping restrictions and fears that more supply could be trapped in the Gulf. (offshore-technology.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries about 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and fuel, or roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. The International Energy Agency said average shipments through the strait were about 20 million barrels a day in 2025. (iea.org) That volume matters because there are few easy detours. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said oil flow through Hormuz averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024 and that only limited pipeline capacity exists to bypass the route if it is shut or restricted. (eia.gov) The current squeeze follows weeks of conflict that the International Energy Agency said cut global oil supply by 10.1 million barrels a day in March, the steepest disruption on record. Its April oil market report said attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker movements through Hormuz drove the drop. (iea.org) Markets have been swinging with each shift in diplomacy. Bloomberg reported Brent fell back below $100 on April 8 after a two-week ceasefire was announced, then moved back above $100 as the truce frayed and both sides kept pressing for leverage around the waterway. (bloomberg.com) Analysts have been modeling even bigger moves if the disruption lasts. Goldman Sachs said on April 9 that Brent could average more than $100 through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for another month. (bloomberg.com) The shock is already feeding into consumer fuel costs. AAA listed the U.S. national average for regular gasoline at $4.059 a gallon on April 24, up from $3.171 a year earlier. (aaa.com) The International Energy Agency has framed the stakes in broader terms than a single price spike. It said the combined hit to oil and liquefied natural gas flows through Hormuz and to regional energy infrastructure amounts to a major threat to energy security and affordability. (iea.org) For now, the market is trading on one question more than any other: whether ships can move normally through the world’s busiest oil chokepoint. As long as that answer is uncertain, oil is likely to keep carrying a war premium above levels seen before the March supply shock. (eia.gov)