Mirror7news warns motor oil shortage

Mirror7news said on May 24 that global supply shocks could cause a motor oil shortage in 2026, pointing to disrupted refining and additive supply and warning of tighter availability for some automotive lubricants. Public industry statements reviewed on Sunday support the broader claim that lubricant supply is under strain, though they do not show any formal industrywide declaration of a shortage or recall. The strongest named warnings have come from the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, which has asked the American Petroleum Institute for emergency relief under its engine-oil licensing rules. ILMA and trade coverage say the pressure is centered on base-oil supply, especially Group III stocks used in many modern synthetic formulations. ### Where is the supply warning coming from? ILMA said on March 13 that it had asked API to invoke force majeure provisions under API 1509 for lubricant marketers in the Engine Oil Licensing and Certification System. The trade group also said it wrote to the U.S. Department of Energy, asking federal officials to treat the disruption as an energy-security and supply-chain issue affecting transportation, agriculture, defense and industrial manufacturing. (ilma.org) Holly Alfano, ILMA’s chief executive, told CNN on May 19 that “We’re looking at shortages” and said the situation would not be resolved quickly. CNN reported that wholesale motor-oil prices were rising rapidly and that some executives were warning of imminent shortages tied to war-related disruption in the Middle East. (ilma.org) ### What exactly is under pressure in the lubricant market? ILMA said base oils make up roughly 75% of finished crankcase lubricants and as much as 98% of some industrial formulations. In a customer bulletin last updated May 11, the group said three reinforcing pressures were squeezing supply: Middle East conflict, constrained Korean refining and refinery economics that favored diesel production over base oils. (abc17news.com) The same bulletin said about 44% of U.S. Group III supply came from three Persian Gulf producers and that roughly 74% of U.S. Group III imports were under direct stress. ILMA said the United States was expected to run out of Middle East Gulf-origin Group III by June, while the usual fallback to Group II was limited because refiners were diverting feedstock into fuels. (ilma.org) ### Are API SN and CK grades part of the public warning? API says gasoline-engine oils fall under its “S” service categories and diesel-engine oils under its “C” commercial categories. API’s public oil-category material shows SN as a gasoline-engine service category and CK-4 as a diesel-engine category within the EOLCS framework. Mirror7news cited API SN and CK grades, but the public industry documents reviewed do not specifically declare those categories unavailable. (ilma.org) ILMA’s named warnings have focused more on low-viscosity oils such as 0W-16, 0W-8 and 0W-20, which CNN said are especially exposed because they depend heavily on high-quality Group III base stocks. (api.org) ### What could drivers and service shops actually see? Tom Glenn, president of Petroleum Trends International, told CNN that “three rounds of price increases over two and a half months is unheard of.” He said some producers had already lifted bulk prices by $5 or more a gallon this year, versus 70 to 80 cents a gallon in a normal year. (abc17news.com) MotorTrend reported on May 19 that consumers could begin seeing meaningful price increases within roughly a month if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted. Alfano told the publication that inventories could cushion the market for a time, but “once those are depleted,” industry analysts expected “real issues by mid-June.” (abc17news.com) ### Has any official shortage or recall been declared? No public statement reviewed from API or ILMA declares a formal industrywide motor-oil shortage or recall as of May 24. API’s public materials describe the licensing and category system for engine oils, while ILMA’s public position is that it is seeking temporary regulatory flexibility and federal attention during the disruption. (motortrend.com) API’s oil-category pages, API 1509 program documents and ILMA’s supply updates are the clearest public references for what comes next. ILMA said it would continue working with industry partners, API and federal agencies, and its customer bulletin said market conditions were not expected to fully resolve until at least mid-2027. (ilma.org)