Iran, U.S. near ceasefire deal

U.S. and Iranian officials moved closer on May 23 and May 24 to a draft arrangement that would extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and open a new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, according to reports from the New York Times, Axios and Xinhua. The proposal under discussion would also reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Iran to resume oil sales during the extension, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official. President Donald Trump said on May 24 that a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” while Iranian officials said discussions were still provisional and unresolved. The talks also involve Israel, according to the New York Times, and come as fighting elsewhere in the region has continued despite earlier ceasefire arrangements. ### What is in the draft now being discussed? A 60-day ceasefire extension is the core of the proposal now being circulated between Washington and Tehran, according to Axios as cited by Xinhua and Reuters. During that period, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, Iran would be able to sell oil freely, and negotiators would hold talks on curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. (english.news.cn) One key element reported by the New York Times is an apparent Iranian commitment to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to two U.S. officials cited by Xinhua. Iranian officials have publicly pushed back on making the nuclear file central to the current peace talks. ### Who says a deal is close, and who is urging caution? Donald Trump said on May 24 that a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” subject to finalization among the United States, Iran and other countries in the Middle East, according to Xinhua. (english.news.cn) He also said in a Truth Social post that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of the agreement and that final details would be announced shortly. Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said on May 24 that Iran and the United States were working to finalize a memorandum of understanding on ending the war. Baghaei added, “We should wait and see what will happen within the next three to four days,” according to Xinhua, and said the nuclear issue was not the focus of the peace talks “at this stage.” (english.news.cn) Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said on May 24 that Iran sought to protect its “legal and legitimate rights” but that its history with the United States required “utmost caution,” Xinhua reported. ### Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much in these talks? The Strait of Hormuz sits at the center of the current bargaining because it links the ceasefire to global shipping and oil flows. (english.news.cn) Xinhua reported in April that tensions in the waterway had remained elevated and that Iran had tied further diplomacy to changes in U.S. restrictions around its ports and shipping. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said on May 10 that Washington would not accept a system in which ships had to coordinate with Iran or pay a toll to pass through the strait. The State Department also said on May 9 that the United States and Gulf partners had drafted a U.N. Security Council resolution calling on Iran to stop attacks, mining and tolling in the waterway. (english.news.cn) ### What has made these negotiations so unstable? April 8 is the date Xinhua gave for the ceasefire that followed U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks. Since then, reporting has described repeated disputes over enforcement, shipping restrictions and the scope of any nuclear concessions. Pakistan has also appeared repeatedly as a mediator in the talks. (state.gov) May 7 reporting cited by Xinhua said Washington and Tehran were closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, though Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency called that report fabricated. On April 27, Xinhua also reported that Iran had floated a proposal to reopen Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear negotiations to a later stage. ### What would negotiators need to settle next? (english.news.cn) The next three to four days are the clearest timetable offered publicly so far. Baghaei said on May 24 that negotiators were working to finalize a memorandum of understanding, while Trump said final aspects and details were still under discussion. Any final agreement would still need signoff from the United States, Iran and other regional participants, according to Trump’s statement as reported by Xinhua. (english.news.cn) The draft now under discussion, according to Axios and Reuters, would pair the 60-day ceasefire extension with reopening Hormuz, renewed Iranian oil sales and nuclear talks during that window. (english.news.cn)