Beijing could revive US energy exports

Energy is back on the table in U.S.-China diplomacy — not as some grand bargain, but as a practical thing both sides could actually do this week. Donald Trump arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, and one idea under discussion is simple: China buys more American oil and gas again. That would not solve the real fight over rare earths, chips, Taiwan, or security. But it would give both governments a visible win in a relationship that has otherwise been mostly about tariffs, controls, and mutual suspicion. ### Why energy? Because energy is one of the few areas where the mechanics are straightforward. China needs huge volumes of fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. The U.S. has a lot to sell. And unlike tech controls or rare earth licensing, an energy restart does not require either side to give up its core strategic leverage. It is basically the easiest kind of deal to point to on a summit stage. (money.usnews.com) ### What exactly broke? Tariffs broke it. Chinese imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas collapsed after Beijing imposed a total 25% tariff during the latest trade war. China bought 4.15 million tons of U.S. LNG in 2024, then just 26,000 tons in 2025. Oil followed the same pattern. China imported 193,000 barrels a day of U.S. crude in 2024, worth about $6 billion, and then stopped buying U.S. oil entirely after May 2025 once a 20% tariff hit. (money.usnews.com) ### Why does LNG matter most? Because LNG is the cleanest comeback story. This trade has already swung wildly with politics before. During Trump’s first-term trade war, Chinese LNG imports from the U.S. sank. Then after the Phase 1 deal, they rebounded hard — to 8.98 million tons in 2021, making the U.S. China’s third-largest LNG supplier that year. So there is a clear precedent here: tariffs go down, cargoes come back. (money.usnews.com) ### But aren’t Chinese buyers still tied to U.S. gas? Yes — and that is the interesting part. Chinese firms like PetroChina and CNOOC still have long-term contracts with U.S. producers that were signed between 2021 and 2023. Reuters says around 12 million tons are contracted for delivery this year. The catch is that many of those cargoes are being resold into Europe instead of landing in China, because paying the tariff at home makes less sense. (money.usnews.com) Remove the tariff, and some of that trade can snap back quickly. ### What about oil? Oil is possible, but less central. China is the world’s biggest crude importer, yet U.S. barrels have never been a major share of that mix. Even at the 2020 peak after the Phase 1 deal, U.S. crude was just under 4% of China’s total crude imports. So oil can help politically — big tanker purchases look good — but LNG is the more natural reset. (money.usnews.com) ### Is gas the whole story? No. Ethane and propane matter too, maybe more than people realize. The U.S. is China’s sole supplier of ethane, which Chinese petrochemical plants use to make plastics, and China imported 5.95 million tons worth $2.96 billion in 2025. Propane is also big — the U.S. remained China’s largest propane supplier in 2025, exporting more than $6.6 billion worth despite tariffs. That means some energy trade never really stopped; it just narrowed into the products China could not easily replace. (money.usnews.com) ### Why not just fix the bigger disputes? Because those are the hard ones. Rare earth controls are still biting, with exports of some specialty materials down about 50% from pre-control levels, even after last year’s truce language. Tech restrictions are even more politically loaded. Energy purchases are different — they are transactional, reversible, and easier to sell domestically as reciprocity rather than surrender. (money.usnews.com) ### Bottom line? If Beijing agrees to buy more U.S. energy, it will not mean the U.S.-China relationship is repaired. It will mean both sides found one narrow lane where business can resume while the real strategic standoff stays in place. That is still meaningful. In a frozen relationship, even a small valve reopening can move a lot of gas. (money.usnews.com)