Sky Sports: Man United operating at +0.1 expected goals per 90 under Michael Carrick

Sky Sports said on May 15 that Manchester United under Michael Carrick are operating at +0.1 expected goals per 90 minutes, a figure the broadcaster used to argue that the club's underlying numbers have barely shifted since Ruben Amorim's tenure. The number appeared in Sky Sports' Premier League analysis and betting column published on Friday. (skysports.com) Sky Sports described the figure as "virtually identical" to the level posted before Carrick took charge. The statistic adds a data point to the debate around Carrick's impact at Old Trafford, where results have improved enough for Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher to say this month that Carrick would be Manchester United's manager next season. (squawka.com) (skysports.com) The Premier League's own website said two months ago that Carrick had made an "impressive start" after replacing Amorim at the start of the previous month. ### What exactly did Sky Sports measure? Sky Sports said the "most revealing metric" was expected goals supremacy, which it defined as the difference between xG created and xG conceded. In that framework, Manchester United under Carrick are at +0.1 xG per 90 minutes, according to the outlet's Friday analysis. (skysports.com) That framing matters because xG supremacy is meant to capture chance quality at both ends rather than just final scores. Sky Sports said the +0.1 figure was "virtually identical" to Amorim's reign before him, and said that suggested "very little has fundamentally changed" in the team's process. (skysports.com) ### How does that compare with other public xG models? Squawka updated its alternative Premier League xG table for the 2025-26 season within the last day and said it bases the standings on teams' expected goals totals from their matches over the course of the campaign. The site presents a separate model from Sky Sports' game-by-game supremacy framing. (skysports.com) FotMob's Premier League xG table, also current as of May 15, listed Manchester United fifth on expected points with 57 xPts from 36 matches. FotMob showed United with 59.3 xG and 45.9 xGA, a positive differential of 13.4 across the season, while StatMuse, citing Understat data, listed United at 58.63 expected goals and 46.83 expected goals against through 36 league matches. Those datasets are not direct substitutes for Sky Sports' Carrick-era per-90 sample, but they show United as a positive underlying team over the full season. (skysports.com) ### Why is the Carrick-versus-Amorim comparison getting attention? Jamie Carragher wrote on Sky Sports on April 28 that Carrick would be Manchester United's manager next season after what he called "sensational results." That assessment focused on outcomes, with Sky Sports noting then that wins over Brentford and other recent opponents had moved United closer to Champions League qualification. (squawka.com) Friday's Sky Sports analysis drew a distinction between results and process. By saying Carrick's +0.1 xG supremacy per 90 was almost the same as Amorim's, the outlet argued that the team's shot-quality profile has not moved much even if the table or momentum has. (fotmob.com) ### What does the broader public data say about United's season? The Premier League's website said in March that Carrick opened with five unbeaten matches and four straight wins after succeeding Amorim. That report credited tactical and personnel changes for helping United's push toward the top four. (skysports.com) Season-long models still place United in the upper half of the league's underlying numbers. FotMob had United fifth in expected points on May 15, and Squawka's updated xG-table feature continued to track clubs in an alternate table based on expected goals rather than actual points. ### Where can readers track whether the number changes? Sky Sports' football analysis pages are one place to watch for updated Carrick-era xG-per-90 figures, including the betting and predictions column that carried Friday's number. (skysports.com) Squawka's 2025-26 alternative xG table is also being updated weekly, giving readers a separate public comparison point for Manchester United and the rest of the Premier League. (premierleague.com) The next checkpoints are Manchester United's remaining league matches and the next refresh of public xG tables from outlets including Squawka and FotMob. As of May 15, FotMob's table had 36 matches logged for United, leaving two league games for the season totals to move. (skysports.com) (fotmob.com)