Energy shocks reshaping supply chains
Rising fuel costs and Middle East geopolitics are now denting U.S. import seasonality and pushing freight and input prices higher, blunting the usual spring lift in imports. (globaltrademag.com). Reports that U.S. Central Command will enforce a Hormuz blockade applying to Iranian ports add a direct routing and crude‑supply shock that analysts say will hit China particularly hard as energy and trade risks collide. ( )
U.S. importers are heading into spring with weaker cargo volumes and higher transport costs as fuel prices and Middle East disruptions hit at the same time. (globaltrademag.com) The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said U.S. ports handled 1.95 million twenty-foot equivalent units in February, down 7.5% from January and 4.2% from a year earlier. March is projected at 1.97 million units, down 8.3% year over year, before a smaller rebound in April, May, and June. (globaltrademag.com) That slowdown is landing alongside a temporary 10% global tariff, revised Section 232 duties on metals, and new tariffs on pharmaceutical goods and inputs, according to the same report. The report said rising bunker fuel costs, vessel diversions, and weaker consumer spending tied to higher gasoline prices are all adding pressure. (globaltrademag.com) A bunker fuel bill is the shipping industry’s diesel tab, and when it rises, freight rates usually follow. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates said continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could strain fuel availability at key Asian ports even if U.S. ports avoid outright shortages. (globaltrademag.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and the United States Energy Information Administration says about 20.9 million barrels a day moved through it in the first half of 2025. That was about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and one-quarter of global maritime oil trade. (eia.gov) The Energy Information Administration said on April 7 that Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March, up $32 from February, and touched nearly $128 on April 2. The agency said it now expects disruptions to continue through late 2026 and keep a risk premium in oil prices. (eia.gov) On April 13, U.S. Central Command said it would begin enforcing a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, while ships moving between non-Iranian ports could still pass through the strait. That narrowed an earlier message from President Donald Trump that had suggested a broader blockade of all traffic in the waterway. (hindustantimes.com) China is exposed on both legs of that shock: as a major manufacturing exporter that buys seaborne energy and as a trading power tied to Asian port fuel costs. The Energy Information Administration says the Strait of Malacca carried 23.2 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, making it the other major Asian chokepoint in the same chain. (eia.gov) Reuters reported on April 12 that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were preparing to cut growth forecasts and raise inflation forecasts because the Middle East war was disrupting energy supplies and trade flows. The World Bank’s baseline put 2026 growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65%, down from 4% in October, with inflation seen at 4.9% instead of 3%. (whtc.com) For supply chains, that leaves little room for a normal spring reset: fewer containers, pricier fuel, and longer routing decisions are now hitting the same invoices. Even where cargo keeps moving, the cost of moving it has already changed. (globaltrademag.com; eia.gov)
