AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial Day travelers

Memorial Day travel is turning into a stress test for the whole U.S. vacation machine. AAA now expects 45 million Americans to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. That would edge past last year and set a new record for the holiday weekend. (newsroom.aaa.com) The surprise is not that people want to travel — it’s that they’re still doing it in huge numbers even with gas prices running much higher than a year ago. ### What actually got forecast? AAA’s May 11 outlook puts total Memorial Day travel at 45 million people. Most of them — 39.1 million — are expected to drive. Another 3.66 million are expected to fly, and about 2.2 million are expected to take buses, trains, or cruises. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA uses a five-day holiday window, not just the three-day weekend itself, which is why the total looks so large. ### Why is the car number the real story? Because driving is doing almost all the work here. Roughly 87% of Memorial Day travelers are expected to go by car, which means the headline is really about road volume. If 39.1 million people drive, congestion stops being a local annoyance and becomes a national pattern — packed interstates, slower exits, and longer backups around big metros. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Wait — aren’t gas prices high? Yes, and that’s what makes the forecast notable. AAA’s national average for regular gas was $4.511 on May 13, 2026. A week earlier, AAA said the average had jumped 25 cents for a second straight week, hitting levels not seen since 2022. (newsroom.aaa.com) In other words, travelers are not getting a cheap kickoff to summer this year. They’re going anyway. ### So why are people still going? Basically, Memorial Day behaves differently from a normal discretionary trip. It’s a fixed long weekend, schools are close to summer break, and people treat it as the unofficial start of the season. AAA also says flight prices for people who booked early are actually lower than last year — average domestic roundtrip airfare is about $800, down 6% — which softens the blow for flyers even as fuel costs rise. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### When will the roads be worst? The ugly windows are the afternoon periods. INRIX traffic guidance tied to the holiday forecast says drivers should expect the heaviest congestion on Thursday and Friday between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., plus another rough return wave on Monday afternoon. (gasprices.aaa.com) The basic trick is simple — leave in the morning if you can, because holiday traffic stacks on top of normal commuter traffic later in the day. ### Is flying getting crushed too? Not in the same way, but airports will be busy. AAA expects 3.66 million air travelers, which is a small increase from last year. That is nowhere near the scale of road traffic, but it still means crowded terminals and tighter booking pressure around popular destinations. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA’s own booking data points to places like Orlando, Seattle, New York, Las Vegas, and Miami as top domestic draws. ### What changed from last year? The key change is that 2025 was already a record Memorial Day travel year at 44.8 million travelers, and 2026 is now projected to top it. So this is not a rebound story anymore. (midstates.aaa.com) It’s a continuation story — Americans have kept prioritizing holiday travel even after the easy post-pandemic comparisons disappeared. ### Bottom line? If you’re traveling, assume crowds are the default. The record is only a small step above last year, but at this scale even a small step means fuller roads, busier airports, and less room for sloppy timing. (newsroom.aaa.com 1) (newsroom.aaa.com 2)