Fed delays rate relief
- Economists and markets now expect the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts because energy-driven inflation persists. - CME FedWatch shows under 1% odds of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting. - Reuters reports economists pushed meaningful cuts toward late 2026, and mortgage rates remain elevated per CBS News. ( )
Wall Street and many economists now expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates where they are for longer, with the next cut increasingly pushed off as energy prices threaten to keep inflation sticky. (reuters.com) The Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting ends on April 29, 2026, and CME FedWatch showed less than a 1% chance of a cut at that meeting. The Fed last left its target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18. (federalreserve.gov) (cmegroup.com) (federalreserve.gov) Reuters reported on April 22 that economists had shifted expectations for meaningful easing toward late 2026 as war-related inflation risks in energy markets grew. The Fed’s March statement also said the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy were uncertain. (reuters.com) (federalreserve.gov) The Fed sets a short-term benchmark rate that flows through to borrowing costs across the economy, from credit cards to business loans to mortgages. When inflation looks likely to stay above the Fed’s 2% goal, officials usually wait longer before cutting. (federalreserve.gov 1) (federalreserve.gov 2) That wait is still showing up in housing. CBS News reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.12% on April 22, according to Zillow, while the average 15-year purchase rate was 5.50%. (cbsnews.com) Mortgage rates do not move one-for-one with the Fed’s benchmark, but they tend to stay elevated when investors think rate cuts will be slower and fewer. CBS’s daily rate coverage showed the 30-year average at 6.25% on April 2, 5.99% on April 21, and 6.12% on April 22. (cbsnews.com 1) (cbsnews.com 2) (cbsnews.com 3) Markets use tools like FedWatch to translate fed funds futures prices into odds for each Federal Reserve meeting. CME says those probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures, which track expectations for the average effective federal funds rate in a given month. (cmegroup.com 1) (cmegroup.com 2) The Fed is scheduled to release its next policy decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on April 29, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. Until then, traders, homeowners, and businesses are all reading the same signal: relief is not expected next week. (federalreserve.gov) (cmegroup.com)
