OECD lifts inflation warning

The OECD now puts G20 headline inflation at 4.0% for 2026, 1.2 percentage points higher than its December projection of 2.8%. (bloomberg.com) Global GDP growth for 2026 was left at 2.9% in the OECD’s interim update, but the organisation said the Iran-related shock erased an upside revision of about 0.3 percentage points it otherwise would have made; the 2027 global growth forecast was trimmed to roughly 3.0%. (bloomberg.com) The UK’s 2026 outlook was revised down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% growth from the December baseline, and the OECD raised the UK inflation projection to about 4.0% from 2.5%—the steepest downgrade and largest upward inflation revision among major advanced economies. (bloomberg.com ) For the United States the OECD’s baseline shows GDP growth near 2.0% in 2026 and slowing to about 1.7% in 2027, with core inflation (ex-food-and-energy) projected around 2.8% in 2026 and easing to about 2.4% in 2027; the report says its baseline assumes central-bank policy rates remain broadly unchanged through 2027. (cnbc.com) The OECD built its baseline on futures-market pricing as of March 20 and notes Brent crude and European gas prices are roughly 40% and 60% higher respectively in 2026 versus what it assumed in December, while its projections assume energy-price pressures begin to ease from around mid‑2026. (tralac.org (oecd.org)) The Paris-based body warned of “significant downside risk” from prolonged Middle East export disruptions—saying extended shocks could push inflation wider, weaken private demand and force “repricing” in financial markets—and urged that any fiscal support be targeted and time‑limited while central banks remain vigilant. (bloomberg.com (oecd.org))