Is the bear market over?
A recent market video framed this week’s synchronized rally across stocks, crypto and commodities and asked whether the bear market is cancelled, listing four possible drivers: returning risk appetite, policy or growth repricing, short-covering, or momentum chasing. The clip presented the question without declaring an answer and highlighted the need for confirmation from volume and fundamentals. (youtube.com)
The rally is real, but the cleanest answer on April 17 is that markets have rebounded faster than the evidence for a new bull run. The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 on April 15 for the first time, while Bitcoin traded around $75,000 to $78,000 and oil swung sharply lower as Middle East shipping fears eased. (reuters.com) (finance.yahoo.com) (crypto.com) (bnnbloomberg.ca) By Wednesday, April 15, the S&P 500 had recovered all of its losses since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and finished at a record high, helped by de-escalation hopes and stronger earnings expectations. Reuters said that was the index’s first record close since the conflict began. (reuters.com) Bitcoin joined the move, with live price trackers showing it back above $75,000 on April 17 after trading near $72,000 earlier in the week. Oil moved the other way: U.S. crude fell below $90 a barrel on April 17 after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic during the ceasefire period. (yahoo.com) (crypto.com) (usnews.com) A bear market is a long decline driven by falling earnings, tighter money or both; a rally inside it can still be violent when traders rush back into risk. That is why one strong week across stocks, crypto and commodities does not settle the question by itself. (spglobal.com) (federalreserve.gov) The macro backdrop is still mixed. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18 and said inflation remained elevated, job gains had remained low, and uncertainty tied to the Middle East was still high. (federalreserve.gov) (cnbc.com) That leaves several explanations for the speed of the move. Reuters tied the stock surge to war de-escalation and earnings, while market data also show volatility dropping, with the Cboe Volatility Index near 18 in mid-April after a higher-stress stretch earlier in the month. (reuters.com) (fred.stlouisfed.org) (tradingeconomics.com) Short-covering is part of the case because fast rallies often force bearish traders to buy back positions, which pushes prices up further without proving that long-term investors have changed their view. Crypto commentary this week pointed to exchange flows and derivatives liquidations as signs that at least part of Bitcoin’s jump came from traders unwinding bearish bets. (beincrypto.com) (en.bloomingbit.io) Momentum chasing is another possibility. When the S&P 500 clears a round number like 7,000 and Bitcoin retakes $75,000, systematic funds and retail traders can add exposure simply because prices are rising, not because growth or profits have been re-estimated in a durable way. (finance.yahoo.com) (crypto.com) The confirmation test is less dramatic than the rally itself. Tuesday’s total U.S. share volume was 17.96 billion, below the 20-session average of 19.10 billion, a sign that the advance did not come with obvious blowout participation across the whole market. (msn.com) So the bear market is not clearly “over” so much as markets have priced in a better short-term path on war risk and maybe on growth. If that view holds, the next proof will have to come from earnings, inflation and broader buying, not from one week of synchronized relief. (reuters.com) (federalreserve.gov)
