Beef prices stay high

Beef prices are staying near record highs in 2026, and federal forecasts point to tight supplies and expensive steaks, roasts, and ground beef for months. (ers.usda.gov) The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on January 1, 2026, the nation had 86.2 million cattle and calves, with 27.6 million beef cows, down 1% from a year earlier. The 2025 calf crop fell 2% to 32.9 million head, and cattle on feed dropped 3% to 13.8 million. (nass.usda.gov) USDA’s April 15 outlook cut its 2026 beef production forecast to 25.790 billion pounds and projected slaughter steer prices at $241.66 per hundredweight, up 8% from 2025. The same report raised its beef import forecast to 5.790 billion pounds, up 6% from last year. (ers.usda.gov) At the grocery store, the March 2026 national average price was $6.86 a pound for all uncooked ground beef, up 11.8% from March 2025. All uncooked beef steaks averaged $12.73 a pound, up 16.0%, and all uncooked beef roasts averaged $8.86, up 10.8%. (bls.gov) Cattle prices do not move like chicken prices because ranchers cannot rebuild a herd quickly. USDA’s Economic Research Service said in March 2025 that cattle cycles typically last 8 to 12 years, and that low 2026 supplies were expected to push prices to a record high before they ease later in the decade. (ers.usda.gov) That cycle starts when producers keep more heifers for breeding instead of sending them to slaughter, which reduces near-term beef supplies before it increases future calf numbers. USDA said that response can take years because cattle take longer to mature than hogs or broilers. (ers.usda.gov) Restaurants and backyard cooks are seeing the same squeeze in cuts tied to grilling season. In March, sirloin steak averaged $14.12 a pound, up 18.5% from a year earlier, while boneless chuck roast averaged $8.83, up 9.1%. (bls.gov) USDA’s longer-range baseline still points to relief arriving slowly, not this summer. Its 2025 baseline said cattle inventories were expected to rise to 91.6 million head by 2034 after a 2025 low, with high retail beef prices continuing for several years. (ers.usda.gov)