Goldman expects central‑bank gold buys

Goldman Sachs said on May 18 that central banks are likely to increase gold purchases this year, a call the bank said should help bullion recover by the end of 2026. In a note dated May 15, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said official-sector buying was expected to average 60 tons a month over 2026, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg said Goldman’s revised framework put the 12-month moving average of purchases at 50 tons in March, up from a prior estimate of 29 tons. Separately, the South China Morning Post reported that China’s gold recycling industry has expanded rapidly, with more than half of existing recycling-related firms established in the past three years. ### Why is Goldman focused on central banks again? Goldman Sachs based its latest call on a revised estimate of official accumulation that showed stronger underlying demand than previously captured. Bloomberg reported that the bank’s updated framework lifted its reading of the 12-month moving average for central-bank purchases to 50 tons in March from 29 tons under the prior approach. Goldman said that pace could rise to 60 tons a month over 2026. (bloomberg.com) World Gold Council data show why that matters. The council said central-bank net purchases reached 863 tons in 2025, with fourth-quarter buying up 6% from the prior quarter to 230 tons. The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer for a second straight year, adding 102 tons in 2025, according to the council’s full-year report published on January 29, 2026. (bloomberg.com) ### Which official buyers have kept the market’s attention? China remains one of the reserve managers watched most closely because its monthly reserve disclosures can move sentiment around official demand. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange lists 2026 official reserve assets updates on its data portal, including releases posted on April 30 and May 7. Those releases provide the official channel investors use to track changes in China’s reserve composition. (gold.org) The World Gold Council’s 2025 central-bank survey also pointed to broad institutional interest in bullion. The council said the survey drew 73 responses, the highest since it began eight years earlier, and described gold reserve management as retaining importance across the central-bank community. ### What does China’s recycling boom add to the picture? (safe.gov.cn) China’s recycling industry is growing from a low base but at speed. The South China Morning Post reported that more than half of China’s existing gold recycling-related firms were established in the past three years, and that companies less than a year old accounted for nearly 30% of the total. The paper said the firms were concentrated in southern and eastern China. (gold.org) That matters because recycled gold is one of the few supply channels that can respond relatively quickly when prices rise or when consumers sell old jewelry and scrap. The SCMP report did not say recycling was offsetting official buying, but it showed that China is building capacity in a part of the market that feeds refined metal back into circulation. (scmp.com) ### How do the demand and supply threads fit together? Goldman’s call and China’s recycling expansion point to different parts of the same market. Goldman is describing continued demand from reserve managers, while the China report describes a growing domestic pipeline for secondary supply. Neither source says one trend cancels the other out. (scmp.com) Bloomberg reported in January that Goldman had already raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 an ounce, citing private-sector diversification into bullion alongside strong central-bank demand. Monday’s report did not repeat that target in the excerpt available, but it said stronger official buying should aid prices by year-end. (bloomberg.com) ### What should readers watch next? The next data points are likely to come from official reserve disclosures and periodic demand reports. China’s reserve updates are posted through the State Administration of Foreign Exchange data pages, while the World Gold Council publishes quarterly and annual breakdowns of central-bank buying. Goldman’s forecast will also be tested against monthly reserve changes and spot-price moves through the second half of 2026. (bloomberg.com) (safe.gov.cn)