Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin Forecast
Citigroup lowered its 12‑month Bitcoin target to $112,000 and Ethereum to $3,175, citing delayed institutional adoption and regulatory headwinds as reasons for a slower path to new highs. The downgrade comes amid ongoing geopolitical volatility that’s kept many institutions cautious despite survey data showing most still plan to add crypto allocations in 2026. (newsbtc.com) (crypto.news)
Citi strategist Alex Saunders published the client note on March 17, 2026 as head of Quantitative Global Macro and DeFi Research at Citigroup. (money.usnews.com)) The bank laid out scenario ranges that put a recessionary bear case at $58,000 for bitcoin and $1,198 for ether, and a demand-driven bull case of $165,000 for bitcoin and $4,488 for ether. (money.usnews.com)) Citi also trimmed its 12‑month ETF inflow assumptions to about $10 billion for bitcoin products and $2.5 billion for ether products, calling ETF flows the single most important positive catalyst. (coindesk.com)) The report flagged the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act as the key policy hinge, noting the bill has been stuck in the Senate Banking Committee since January and that market-implied passage odds have slipped into the mid‑50s to 60% range. (cryptotimes.io)) At the time Citi published its note, bitcoin was trading roughly in the low‑$70,000s and ether around the mid‑$2,300s, figures the bank used when framing upside and downside scenarios. (uk.finance.yahoo.com)) A January survey of 351 institutional investors by Coinbase and EY‑Parthenon found 73% plan to raise digital‑asset allocations in 2026 and 74% expect prices to be higher over the next 12 months, with roughly two‑thirds favoring ETPs as their preferred access route. (coinbase.com))
