Markets at six‑month lows
All three major U.S. indices hit six‑month lows as the S&P 500 slid 1.74% in a session, the Nasdaq fell over 2.3%, and the Dow lost 0.9% for the week. ( ) Moody’s recession model is now flashing its highest warning in years as oil spikes (55% month-to-date) and YTD losses mount — Nasdaq -16.07%, Dow -7.82%, S&P -7.42%. ( )
Moody’s Analytics’ model put the probability of a U.S. recession at roughly 48.6–49% for the next 12 months, a jump Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi described as making a downturn “difficult to avoid.” (cnbc.com) Brent front‑month crude settled near $112.57 on March 27 and, by several market measures, has risen roughly 50–55% so far in March as Strait‑of‑Hormuz disruptions pushed a steep geopolitical premium into prices. (morningstar.com) The Dow has slipped about 10% from its Feb. 10 record close, formally putting the blue‑chip index in correction territory, while the S&P 500 sits roughly 6.8% below its Jan. 27 high after its fourth straight weekly decline. (money.usnews.com) Market stress showed up in the fear gauge and rates: the Cboe VIX spiked into the high‑20s (around 27.4) on March 26, and the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to about 4.44% by March 27. (markets.financialcontent.com) The selloff hit mega‑caps hard — the group dubbed the “Magnificent 7” shed hundreds of billions in market value this week as investors rotated out of high‑valuation tech into defensive and energy names. (finance.yahoo.com) Energy plays have been the big beneficiary of the crude spike: several energy ETFs are up sharply this year and tanker stocks have surged on higher freight rates, with some names posting double‑digit monthly gains. (247wallst.com)
