Meta set to overtake Google

Meta is on track to pass Google in digital ad revenue in 2026, ending a lead Google had held for years. (emarketer.com) Emarketer said on April 13 that Meta will generate $243.46 billion in net worldwide ad revenue in 2026, ahead of Google at $239.54 billion. The same forecast says Meta will also move ahead in the United States. (emarketer.com) The gap is small, but the growth rates are not. Emarketer expects Meta’s worldwide ad business to grow 24.1% in 2026 after 22.1% in 2025, while Google’s ad revenue is forecast to grow 11.9%. (emarketer.com) Meta is getting there by selling more ads and charging more for them. In full-year 2025, Meta reported $200.97 billion in revenue, with ad impressions across its Family of Apps up 12% and average price per ad up 9%. (investor.atmeta.com) Google is still enormous, but its business is more spread out. Alphabet said on February 4 that 2025 revenue topped $400 billion, YouTube brought in more than $60 billion across ads and subscriptions, and Google Services grew 14% for the year. (s206.q4cdn.com) That split matters because the contest is about ad dollars, not total company sales. Emarketer said Google still led global digital ad revenue in 2025 at $214.06 billion versus Meta’s $196.17 billion, but Meta’s share is now rising while Google’s has been falling since 2021. (emarketer.com) The change also tracks where people now find products, videos, and news online. Emarketer said Meta’s automation tools, including Advantage+ and artificial-intelligence-generated ad creative, are lifting performance across Facebook, Instagram, and Reels. (emarketer.com) Google is dealing with legal pressure at the same time. A federal judge ruled in August 2024 that Google illegally maintained monopolies in general search and general search text ads, and the Justice Department said in September 2025 that the court imposed remedies aimed at Google’s distribution deals and syndication practices. (justice.gov; congress.gov) A second federal court ruled on April 17, 2025 that Google illegally monopolized key ad-tech markets used to buy and sell display ads on the open web. The Justice Department said the case covered the tools publishers and advertisers use to place ads on websites. (justice.gov) That ruling is now feeding private claims. Bloomberg reported on April 13 that advertisers are preparing mass arbitration filings against Google, and lawyer Ashley Keller estimated potential search and display ad claims at $218 billion or more; Google said in a recent filing that it cannot estimate possible losses and will defend itself vigorously. (bloomberg.com) Google is appealing the monopoly findings, and Emarketer said its forecast was completed before recent court rulings against Meta and YouTube that it does not expect to materially change the 2026 ad numbers. For now, the clearest number in the market is the one that puts Meta slightly ahead. (emarketer.com; bloomberg.com)