Nissan forecasts ¥20B profit turnaround

Nissan is trying to convince investors that the turnaround has finally started. On Tuesday, May 13, the company said it expects to post a ¥20 billion net profit in the fiscal year ending March 2027, after losing ¥533.1 billion in the year that just ended. That is a huge swing on paper. But the bigger story is that Nissan is still in the middle of a pretty brutal restructuring, so this forecast is less a victory lap than a first stress test. ### What did Nissan actually say? Nissan reported full-year results for fiscal 2025 — the year ended March 31, 2026 — and paired them with guidance for fiscal 2026. The headline number is the new forecast for ¥20 billion in net income. Nissan also said full-year operating profit in the just-finished year came in at ¥58 billion on ¥12.0 trillion in revenue, with global sales of 3.15 million vehicles. (global.nissannews.com) ### Why is that a “turnaround”? Because the base you are comparing against was ugly. Nissan’s latest annual report showed a net loss of ¥533.1 billion and negative automotive free cash flow of ¥480.8 billion for fiscal 2025. So the move from a half-trillion-yen loss to a small profit is real. But it is also important to notice the scale — ¥20 billion is a return to the black, not a return to strength. (global.nissannews.com) ### What improved before this forecast? A lot of the momentum showed up in pieces over the past few months. In February, Nissan posted a third-quarter operating profit of ¥17.5 billion and said it was accelerating its Re:Nissan recovery plan. Then in late April, it raised its full-year operating-profit outlook for fiscal 2025 from a ¥60 billion loss to a ¥50 billion profit. That revision was driven partly by ongoing cost cuts, partly by favorable currency moves, and partly by a one-time benefit tied to changes in U.S. emissions rules. (global.nissannews.com) ### So is demand suddenly strong again? Not exactly. The cleaner reading is that Nissan has gotten better at damage control before it has fully fixed the business. The company’s own language around the results leaned on disciplined execution and cost control. That matters because the recent improvement does not look like a broad-based sales boom. It looks more like Nissan squeezed out better numbers while still dealing with weak spots in its lineup and tough competition, especially from Chinese automakers in Asia. (global.nissannews.com) ### What is Re:Nissan? Basically, it is the company’s survival plan. Nissan laid it out in May 2025 with a target of returning the automotive business to positive operating profit and free cash flow by fiscal 2026. The plan calls for ¥500 billion in fixed and variable cost savings versus fiscal 2024, a workforce reduction of 20,000, and a cut in plants from 17 to 10 by fiscal 2027. That is why this week’s forecast matters — it is the first real sign that the restructuring may be starting to show up in headline earnings. (global.nissannews.com) ### What is the catch? The catch is that part of the recent improvement was helped by a one-off U.S. regulatory impact, which is not the same thing as a durable earnings engine. And even after the surprise operating profit, Nissan is still coming off seven straight quarterly net losses before this projected rebound was announced. So investors now have to separate temporary relief from genuine operating recovery. (global.nissannews.com) ### Why does this matter beyond Nissan? Because Nissan has become a kind of stress case for the global auto industry. Legacy carmakers are trying to cut costs, defend margins, keep up in EVs, and respond to Chinese competition all at once. If Nissan can move from deep losses to even a thin profit while shrinking factories and payroll, that tells suppliers, lenders, and rivals that restructuring still has a path. If it misses, the opposite lesson lands just as hard. (global.nissannews.com) ### Bottom line Nissan’s ¥20 billion profit forecast is real news, but it is not a clean all-clear. It says the company may be stabilizing. It does not yet say the company is healthy. The next year is where Nissan has to prove that cost cutting can turn into a durable car business — not just a better-looking set of slides. (global.nissannews.com) (usnews.com)