TransUnion Forecasts Positive Lending Momentum

- Unsecured personal loans are projected to be the fastest-growing credit category, with an 11.2% increase in originations forecasted for 2026. This follows a record 7.2 million new unsecured loans originated in Q3 2025, a trend driven by a 32.5% year-over-year increase in the subprime segment. - In contrast to the growth in personal loans, auto loan originations are expected to decline by 1.5% in 2026. This follows gains in 2025 that were largely attributed to consumers making purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs and the expiration of EV tax credits. - The forecast for mortgage originations shows moderate growth, with a 4.0% increase expected for home purchases and a 4.2% rise for refinances. This continues a rebound from near-record lows, supported by easing 30-year mortgage rates, which are expected to hover around 6% for much of 2026. - As real-time payments gain traction, the FedNow Service has expanded to over 1,600 participating financial institutions as of January 2026. The network saw its volume grow 460% in 2025, with the total value of transactions reaching $853.4 billion. - In fraud prevention, financial institutions are increasingly adopting AI to combat the rise of synthetic identity fraud and other sophisticated scams. The trend in 2026 is a shift toward unified platforms that combine fraud detection with anti-money laundering (AML) signals for a more holistic view of risk. - The regulatory landscape for stablecoins is maturing significantly in 2026, with frameworks like the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the EU and the proposed GENIUS Act in the U.S. coming into force. This is paving the way for stablecoins to be treated as regulated payment instruments and integrated into mainstream financial infrastructure for cross-border transactions and B2B payments. - Embedded finance is a major growth area, with the global market projected to expand from approximately $111 billion in 2024 to over $1.7 trillion by 2034. For banks and fintechs, this creates significant partnership opportunities to offer financial products like lending and insurance through non-financial platforms, opening up new revenue streams and customer bases. - For product leaders, a key skill for navigating large enterprises is influencing without authority. This involves building credibility through deep expertise, mobilizing allies across different teams, and using data-driven storytelling to align stakeholders around a shared product vision, rather than relying on direct reporting lines.