Hormuz chokepoint is choking trade
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively at a near‑standstill and ships are rerouting around Southern Africa, nearly doubling voyage volumes and snarling supply chains — delays are already cascading into higher shipping and insurance costs. Analysts warn the disruption is systemic: the Bab el‑Mandeb normally channels up to 14% of global trade, and in a worst‑case 16% drop in global oil supply economists say prices could spike to as high as $372/barrel. (nytimes.com) (theconversation.com) (benzinga.com)
Maersk, Hapag‑Lloyd and CMA CGM suspended transits through the Gulf and announced reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope, with Maersk formally pausing its Trans‑Suez ME11 and MECL services in early March 2026. (maersk.com)) Hapag‑Lloyd implemented a War Risk Surcharge effective March 2, 2026 of $1,500 per TEU (and $3,500 for reefers/special equipment), while CMA CGM and other carriers followed with emergency conflict surcharges reportedly ranging from $2,000–$4,000 per TEU. (hapag-lloyd.com)) Marine war‑risk underwriters began cancelling or withdrawing Gulf war‑coverage in early March, and brokers and insurers report war‑risk premiums rising in some routes by multiples — in isolated cases insurers said increases exceeded 1,000%. (container-mag.com)) Rerouting around southern Africa is adding roughly two weeks to common Asia–Europe sailings — industry notices and cruise reroutes cite additions of about 12 days, while route‑cost modelling places some service impacts at up to 19 extra transit days. (weoncruise.com)) The U.S. EIA’s chokepoint dataset shows the Strait of Hormuz moved about 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, and records a fall in Bab el‑Mandeb flows to roughly 4.1 million bpd in 2024; academic analysis warns the Bab el‑Mandeb normally channels as much as 14% of global maritime trade in goods. (eia.gov)) Market impacts are visible: Brent/WTI benchmarks climbed sharply through March (Brent trading around $102.63/barrel on March 31, 2026), while commentary from economists has sketched extreme stress scenarios — including forecasts of prices as high as $372/barrel in a catastrophic supply shortfall. (tradingeconomics.com)) Ports and terminals along southern Africa have reported rising calls and throughput as diverted services boost activity, even as regulators and operators flag rising operational risk and higher container‑loss incidents linked to longer, more congested voyages. (furtherafrica.com))
