U.S. jobs show 1960s-level lows
- U.S. labor data heading into the May 8 jobs report still show a remarkably low-layoff economy, with unemployment at 4.3% and weekly claims near 214,000. - The standout detail is layoffs: JOLTS put the layoffs-and-discharges rate at 1.1% in February, while insured unemployment held at just 1.2%. - That matters because hiring has cooled even as firing stays scarce — a very unusual mix that keeps recession fears alive and rate cuts uncertain.
The U.S. jobs story right now is not “booming” or “breaking.” It’s weirder than that. Employers are not hiring like they were two years ago, but they also are not doing much firing. That is why people keep reaching for old comparisons — some layoff measures really are hovering near levels the U.S. has only rarely seen since the 1960s. (dol.gov) ### What actually looks 1960s-low? It’s not the headline unemployment rate by itself. A 4.3% unemployment rate is low by long-run standards, but it is not a 1960s record. The more striking numbers are layoff-related. Initial jobless claims were 214,000 for the week ending April 18, with the 4-week average at 210,750, and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%. JOLTS al(dol.gov)ting fired” numbers people are reacting to. (dol.gov) ### So is the labor market still strong? Yes — but in a narrower way than before. March payrolls rose by 178,000, which is solid, and the unemployment rate barely moved. Health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing added jobs. But the labor market no longer looks hot across the board. It looks stable, with growth concentrated in a few areas and less momentum elsewhere. (bls.gov) ### Why does low firing matter so much? Because layoffs are usually the fast part of a downturn. When the economy rolls over, claims jump first and unemployment follows. That has not happened. Businesses seem reluctant to let workers go after spending years struggling to hire and retain them. Basically, companies may be saying: demand is softer, but finding people was so painful that we’d rather hoard labor th(bls.gov)ms and JOLTS data together. (dol.gov) ### Then why are people still uneasy? Because hiring has cooled a lot more than firing. JOLTS showed 6.882 million job openings in February, a hires rate of 3.1%, and a quits rate of 1.9%. Workers quit when they feel confident about finding something better. Employers hire aggressively when they feel demand is strong. Both numbers are well off the frenzy of the post-pa(dol.gov)r. (bls.gov) ### What about pay and rent? This is where the picture gets messy for households. Wage growth has not collapsed — the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker was 3.9% in March. Core CPI was up 2.6% over the year, and shelter rose 0.3% in March, which is cooler than the rent surge people got used to in 2022 and 2023. But March also brought a big energy spike, with gasoline up 21.2% on the month, and BLS said real aver(bls.gov)lds feel relief on rents, while others feel pain at the pump. (atlantafed.org) ### Why does this matter for the Fed? Because this is the soft-landing version of a labor market — less hiring, very little firing, wages still rising, inflation not fully beaten. If layoffs were jumping, rate cuts would look urgent. If hiring were roaring, cuts would look reckless. Instead the Fed gets a muddled middle: labor demand is cooler, but labor market damage is still hard to find. (dol.gov) ### What should people watch next? Friday, May 8, 2026. That’s the next Employment Situation report. The key question is simple — does unemployment stay around 4.3% while claims remain low, or does weaker hiring finally start spilling into job losses? Until that changes, the big labor-market fact is still this: America has a hiring problem, not a firing wave. (fred.stlouisfed.org)
