Global supply‑chain stress spikes
GEP’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index hit a three‑year high amid Middle East conflict, signaling elevated disruption across freight, inputs and sourcing networks. The rise reflects growing concern about how geopolitical shocks ripple through manufacturing supply chains. (x.com)
Global supply-chain stress jumped in March to its highest level in three years as manufacturers scrambled to protect themselves from disruptions tied to the Middle East war. (prnewswire.com) GEP said its Global Supply Chain Volatility Index rose to 0.57 in March from 0.09 in February, the highest reading since January 2023. The index is based on monthly survey data from about 27,000 businesses and tracks shortages, transport costs, inventories and backlogs. (prnewswire.com) A reading above zero means supply chains are getting stretched rather than sitting idle. GEP said March brought the strongest safety-stock building in three years, a three-year high in reported shortages and a four-year peak in transport costs. (prnewswire.com) The mechanics are straightforward: when fuel, shipping lanes or key inputs look less reliable, factories order earlier and hold more inventory. That behavior can keep production running, but it also ties up cash and pushes freight networks harder. (newyorkfed.org) (prnewswire.com) The March spike lines up with another widely watched measure. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March from 0.54 in February, the highest level since the start of 2023. (newyorkfed.org) (usnews.com) The pressure is not uniform across regions. GEP said Asia reported weaker demand and sharply higher transport costs, North America faced rising cost pressure despite soft demand, and Europe showed the most aggressive safety-stockpiling. (prnewswire.com) S&P Global said the conflict is already hitting energy, transport, food and manufacturing through reduced trade flows via the Strait of Hormuz and damage to infrastructure. It said the biggest transmission channel so far has been higher prices, especially for energy and commodity-heavy industries. (spglobal.com) That price channel is showing up in factory surveys. Reuters reported on April 1 that many Asian economies saw manufacturing activity slow in March as higher fuel costs and war-driven uncertainty weighed on producers. (msn.com) Energy forecasters have also revised their assumptions. Reuters reported on April 8 that the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $96 a barrel from $79, reflecting the continuing war in the Middle East. (msn.com) The latest supply-chain gauges do not point to a repeat of the 2021 bottlenecks, when the New York Fed’s index reached 4.49 in December of that year. They do show that, as of March 2026, geopolitical shocks are again moving from oil and shipping routes into factory orders, inventories and delivery costs. (newyorkfed.org) (prnewswire.com)
