Favorites holding steady
- After first‑round games through April 21, higher seeds remain the pregame favorites across most series. - The Athletic reports favorites are favored in seven of eight opening‑round matchups, with the Rockets the lone lower‑seed pick. - That odds picture increases pressure on underdogs to avoid 0‑2 holes as the opening round begins to separate contenders. ( )
Through games played on Tuesday, April 21, the 2026 National Basketball Association playoffs still mostly run through the higher seeds. (nba.com, bleacherreport.com) The bracket on Wednesday morning showed Los Angeles up 2-0 on Houston and Cleveland up 2-0 on Toronto, while Boston-Philadelphia, New York-Atlanta, Denver-Minnesota and San Antonio-Portland were all tied 1-1. Orlando led Detroit 1-0, and Oklahoma City led Phoenix 1-0 entering Wednesday night. (nba.com, espn.com) That left most of the top four seeds in each conference either ahead or still positioned as the team with home court, which matters because the first round uses a 2-2-1-1-1 format. The better regular-season team hosts Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. (espn.com, nba.com) The pressure point comes early in every series because an 0-2 deficit usually means a lower seed has already lost both road games. Detroit had that risk on April 22 after Orlando took Game 1, and Phoenix faced the same spot against defending champion Oklahoma City. (nba.com, espn.com) The pre-series consensus also leaned heavily toward the favorites. ESPN’s panel picked Detroit over Orlando 10-0, Boston over Philadelphia 12-0, New York over Atlanta 16-0 and Cleveland over Toronto 16-0 before the first round began. (espn.com) In the West, ESPN’s experts backed Oklahoma City over Phoenix, San Antonio over Portland and Denver over Minnesota, while Houston was the one lower seed with visible support against the Lakers. Stephen A. Smith said before the series that the Rockets would “handle the Lakers in four or five games.” (espn.com) Results through April 21 did not erase upset paths, but they did narrow them. Philadelphia and Portland each stole back home-court advantage with Game 2 road wins, while Houston lost twice in Los Angeles and now has to recover at home. (bleacherreport.com, nba.com) The next turn comes when the series shift cities on April 24 and April 25. If the favorites keep winning, the bracket will start to separate quickly; if the underdogs protect home court, most of these matchups stay alive into next week. (nba.com, nba.com)
