Bracket strategy trend
Bracket-fillers are leaning hard on data viz and KenPom trends this year — FOX breaks down the key KenPom signals to prioritize, while the Lexington Herald Leader flags historical upset patterns; the Midwest opened with Michigan as betting favorite but experts are split on which underdog could sneak through FOX Sports Lexington Herald Leader Yahoo Sports.
KenPom research finds that 23 of the last 24 national champions ranked in the top 21 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, a trend FOX Sports tallied as a primary signal to prioritize. (foxsports.com) All 24 of those champions also fell inside the top 25 of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, and FOX lists championship-average ranks of adjusted offense 8.25, adjusted defense 16.33 and efficiency margin 5.17. (foxsports.com) FOX’s breakdown shows a different profile for double‑digit Cinderella teams: of 25 non‑major double‑digit seeds that made the Sweet 16 since 2001, the averages were adjusted offense rank 63.48, adjusted defense 79.76 and efficiency margin 55.08 — useful thresholds for looking beyond raw seed. (foxsports.com) Regionally, Michigan opened as an early title favorite at +350 at BetMGM and is listed as the Midwest’s betting favorite in multiple outlets, with DraftKings showing Michigan as the -130 favorite to win the region. (sports.yahoo.com) Upset candidates flagged by regional previews include No. 11 Miami (Ohio) (play‑in vs. SMU) and No. 10 Santa Clara (projected matchup with No. 7 Kentucky), both named by Yahoo Sports for having stylistic edges that fit common upset profiles. (sports.yahoo.com) Sports Illustrated’s Midwest preview points to Iowa State as a live long‑shot — SI lists Iowa State at +245 to win the region and highlights Iowa State’s top‑5 national ranking in forcing opponent turnovers (21.9%) versus Michigan’s turnover rate (16.3%, 183rd nationally) as a matchup vulnerability. (si.com) Lexington Herald‑Leader notes the historical upset backdrop, reporting that since 2015 seven teams seeded No. 7 or worse have still reached the Final Four and that a 7‑seed‑or‑worse has reached the semifinals in four of the last five tournaments (excluding 2025). (sports.yahoo.com)
