TSMC holds ~70% market share

U.S. Global Investors said on May 19 that the semiconductor industry is heading toward roughly $975 billion in sales this year and $1 trillion next year, driven by AI demand. The firm’s social-media note also said generative AI chips account for about $500 billion and that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. holds about 70% market share by revenue today. Industry forecasts support the broad growth call, while market-share data shows the concentration around TSMC is real, even if the framing depends on which slice of the chip market is being measured. WSTS has forecast global semiconductor sales of about $975.5 billion in 2026, and TrendForce has said TSMC held 69.9% of global foundry revenue in 2025. ### What exactly does the 70% figure refer to? TrendForce’s 69.9% figure refers to the foundry market, not the entire semiconductor industry. That distinction matters because TSMC does not make most memory chips, analog chips, or many other categories sold by integrated device manufacturers such as Samsung, Intel, Texas Instruments or SK Hynix. Taipei Times, citing TrendForce, reported in March that TSMC generated $122.54 billion in 2025 revenue, equal to 69.9% of the global foundry market, up from 64.4% in 2024. (wsts.org) TrendForce separately said TSMC’s share reached 70.2% in the second quarter of 2025. ### Why has TSMC’s share climbed so far? AI accelerator demand has favored TSMC because the company sits at the center of advanced logic manufacturing for companies such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple. (taipeitimes.com) TrendForce said strong shipments of AI GPUs and high-value advanced-node products helped lift TSMC’s quarterly revenue and share. Deloitte said the global semiconductor industry is expected to reach $975 billion in annual sales in 2026, fueled by an “intensifying AI infrastructure boom.” WSTS also said memory and logic are expected to lead industry growth in 2026, both rising more than 30% year over year. (taipeitimes.com) ### Why does that concentration matter to Bay Area companies? (trendforce.com) TSMC’s position means many Bay Area chip designers depend on one manufacturing network for leading-edge output. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Apple and a long list of AI startup customers can diversify design, packaging, software and cloud strategy, but there are fewer substitutes at the most advanced manufacturing nodes. That makes TSMC both a supplier and a bottleneck by virtue of market structure, an inference supported by TrendForce’s market-share data and WSTS’s AI-led growth outlook. (deloitte.com) The concentration also creates openings. Companies tied to packaging, testing, materials, equipment, and domestic manufacturing capacity can pitch themselves as resilience plays if customers want more geographic spread, more packaging capacity, or more redundant supply lines. The growth outlook from WSTS and Deloitte suggests that even partial diversification can sit alongside continued TSMC dependence because total demand is still rising. (taipeitimes.com) ### Is the $1 trillion path broadly accepted? WSTS has forecast 2026 semiconductor sales of $975.5 billion, which aligns with the U.S. Global Investors figure for this year. SIA said in April that global chip sales remain on track to reach $1 trillion in 2026, while IDC said in late April that the industry could pass the $1 trillion threshold in 2026, earlier than expected. Gartner has published an even higher forecast of more than $1.3 trillion in 2026 revenue. (wsts.org) Those differences reflect methodology and category mix, not a dispute over whether AI is driving an unusually strong cycle. Across the forecasts, the common point is that AI infrastructure spending is pushing semiconductor revenue to record levels. ### What should readers watch next? TSMC’s next quarterly results, TrendForce’s next foundry ranking, and WSTS’s next forecast revision will show whether the 70% share holds and whether the industry stays on the path toward $1 trillion in annual sales. (wsts.org) Those updates will also give a clearer read on whether AI demand is broadening beyond a handful of suppliers or becoming even more concentrated around the same manufacturing base. (taipeitimes.com) (deloitte.com)