10-year Treasury tops 4.79%

U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since early 2025 on Wednesday as oil prices rose after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and investors increased bets on another Federal Reserve rate increase this month. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.79%, according to market reports, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $90 a barrel and stock futures pointed lower. The move extended a broader global bond selloff that has pushed borrowing costs higher across major markets. CNN said the rise in yields was lifting the global “price of money,” tightening financial conditions ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. ### Why did the 10-year yield move above 4.79%? The 10-year Treasury yield rose as investors reacted to higher oil prices and the risk that energy-driven inflation could keep the Fed on a hawkish path. Asia Business Daily reported that renewed American airstrikes on Iran helped send the 10-year yield above 4.79%, while HTX said Treasury yields hit a 19-month high as Middle East tensions drove a third straight decline in U.S. stocks. (asiae.co.kr) WTI crude jumped more than 5% and moved above $90 a barrel, according to the same reports. CNBC separately reported Brent crude near $96 after the U.S. military completed a wave of strikes against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Iran retaliated with strikes on U.S. Gulf allies. ### Why does oil matter so much for bonds? Oil prices matter for Treasuries because a sustained rise in energy costs can feed into headline inflation and complicate the Fed’s rate path. (asiae.co.kr) Reuters, in a report carried by Finance & Commerce, said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled higher interest rates may be needed to curb persistent inflation and that investors now see roughly a two-to-one chance of a quarter-point rate increase in September. Higher inflation expectations can lead bond investors to demand higher yields to compensate for the risk that future payments will be worth less in real terms. CNN said rising Treasury yields and war-related uncertainty were increasing the cost of capital well beyond the United States. ### What did the move do to stocks? The Nasdaq fell about 1% as the jump in yields and oil prices hit risk appetite, according to Asia Business Daily. (finance-commerce.com) HTX said U.S. stocks were down for a third straight session as investors reassessed both growth prospects and the likely Fed path. Higher Treasury yields can pressure equities because they raise the discount rate investors use to value future earnings. (cnn.com) That effect is usually most visible in growth stocks, whose cash flows are expected further into the future. CNN said higher sovereign yields were tightening financial conditions and weighing on equity valuations, IPOs and dealmaking. (asiae.co.kr) ### Why are dealmakers watching this so closely? Treasury yields serve as the base rate for much of the financial system, from corporate borrowing to discounted cash flow models. When that base rate rises, companies face higher financing costs and investors often demand lower valuation multiples. CNN said that combination can narrow the window for initial public offerings and mergers ahead of a Fed decision. (cnn.com) The next major test comes on September 15-16, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets. Reuters said investors are now assigning elevated odds to a quarter-point hike, making incoming labor and inflation data central to how yields, oil-sensitive sectors and equity markets trade over the next two weeks. (finance-commerce.com) (cnn.com)