CEO Confidence Hits Highest Level Since Early 2025
U.S. CEO confidence has rebounded significantly, with The Conference Board's index jumping 11 points to 59 in the first quarter of 2026. The optimism is reportedly fueled by resilient consumer demand and cautious hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. A reading above 50 suggests executives expect economic conditions to improve.
The jump in CEO confidence reflects a significant shift in economic outlook, with 43% of CEOs expecting better conditions in the next six months, a stark contrast to the 24% who felt that way in the last quarter of 2025. Only 13% now anticipate conditions will worsen, a significant drop from 38% previously. This renewed optimism is influencing investment plans. According to Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council, over a third of CEOs are now looking to increase their capital spending. This is a notable uptick from the 22% who planned to boost spending in late 2025. "CEO Confidence improved significantly in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting restored optimism among leaders of large firms," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. She noted that CEOs' views on the economy have flipped from "slight pessimism" to "moderate optimism." Despite the positive sentiment, hiring is expected to remain cautious in what some economists describe as a "low-hire, low-fire" environment. The share of CEOs planning to expand their workforce actually edged down, though expectations for job cuts also declined. For Santa Ana professionals, Orange County's economy is projected to see job growth in key areas. The healthcare sector is anticipated to add nearly 50,000 jobs by 2035, while tourism and recreation are expected to add almost 30,000. Other growth sectors include aerospace, defense, life sciences, and tech. This optimism is set against a backdrop of varied economic forecasts. Goldman Sachs projects a robust 2.8% expansion for U.S. GDP in 2026, with core inflation falling to 2.2%. The Congressional Budget Office, however, sees more moderate GDP growth and forecasts inflation at 2.7% for the year. The December 2025 unemployment rate in Orange County stood at 3.9%, below both the California (5.1%) and national (4.1%) averages for the same period. The region's largest year-over-year job gains were in private education and health services, which added 16,600 jobs. Looking at business risks, CEOs' top concerns have shifted. The perceived risks from AI and new technologies have now climbed to the top of the list, surpassing even geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, worries about trade, tariffs, and supply chains have eased.
