Book summer now

Summer 2026 travelers are being told to book flights early and pay for flexibility, as the Iran war keeps oil and jet-fuel prices volatile. (freep.com) The pressure point is fuel. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet-fuel price jumped 7.1% in the latest week to $209 a barrel, while the United States Energy Information Administration said Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March and could peak at $115 in the second quarter. (iata.org) (eia.gov) The Energy Information Administration said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited, with 7.5 million barrels a day of crude production shut in during March and 9.1 million barrels a day expected to be shut in during April. About 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through that waterway, according to the agency. (eia.gov) (travelweekly.com) Airlines have not blown up summer schedules in the United States, but they are already trimming at the margins. CNBC reported on April 7 that carriers have cut some flights, added surcharges, and raised some fares as jet fuel in the United States climbed from $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2. (cnbc.com) United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said late last month that his carrier would have to pull back some Asia flying if fuel stays this high, and Lufthansa Chief Executive Carsten Spohr said the airline was preparing contingency plans that could include grounding aircraft. (cnbc.com) That is why travel advisers are steering people toward refundable tickets instead of the cheapest basic fare. The Detroit Free Press, citing travel experts on April 12, said travelers should book now and consider refundable fares because the conflict could still push prices and schedules around later in the year. (freep.com) There is a second reason to pay for flexibility: federal refund rules only kick in when the airline cancels or significantly changes your flight and you decline the alternative. The United States Department of Transportation says those protections apply to flights to, from, or within the United States, but they do not guarantee a refund just because you changed your mind. (transportation.gov 1) (transportation.gov 2) Analysts do not all expect an immediate summer fare shock. The Energy Information Administration’s April 7 outlook assumes the conflict does not persist past April and that traffic through Hormuz gradually resumes, a path that would push Brent below $90 a barrel by the fourth quarter. (eia.gov) But airlines are planning for a harsher case. Travel Weekly reported Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg estimated that a $10 average fare increase would offset $8 billion in extra fuel costs, and United has told employees it is preparing for oil above $100 a barrel through 2027. (travelweekly.com) (cnbc.com) For travelers, the math is simple in mid-April: lock in summer seats while inventory is still there, and buy the fare rules that let you move if the market does. (freep.com)