Chicago Council poll: most see China rival

China is the rare foreign-policy issue where Americans sound hawkish and cautious at the same time. They think Beijing is a real competitor. They think it wants global dominance. But they also do not want a full economic break, and they really do not want to pay more at the store to make that point. That is the main takeaway from the Chicago Council, NPR, and Ipsos polling released Tuesday, just as Donald Trump heads to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping. ### What did the poll actually show? The headline number is that Americans mostly place China on the unfriendly side of the ledger. In the survey, 37% call China a rival and 21% call it an adversary. Only 2% call it an ally, while 18% say it is a necessary partner. That makes China one of the few countries Americans clearly sort into “competition first” territory. (globalaffairs.org) ### Rival in what sense? Mostly money, not missiles. By a 56% to 29% margin, respondents said China’s growing economic power is a bigger threat to the United States than its growing military power. Another 13% said China is not a threat at all. And almost 8 in 10 said China wants to be the dominant world leader. So the public mood is not soft. But it is pointed at trade, industry, and leverage more than war. (globalaffairs.org) ### What about tariffs? This is where the story gets more interesting. Americans are not reading tariffs as a clean patriotic win. Big majorities say tariffs on Chinese imports have been bad for the U.S. cost of living, bad for Americans’ standard of living, bad for creating jobs, and bad for both the U.S. and Chinese economies. In plain English — people may like toughness, but they do not like the bill. (globalaffairs.org) ### So do people want less trade with China? Not really. A 62% majority opposes significantly reducing trade between the United States and China, especially if that means higher costs for American consumers. That is a big clue about where public tolerance ends. Voters may accept export controls, chip restrictions, or selective tariff threats. But a broad decoupling campaign is harder to sell when it lands as inflation. (globalaffairs.org) ### Why does that matter right now? Because Trump is not walking into Beijing with a simple “be tougher” mandate. He has room to press for concessions. The Chicago Council write-up says majorities would favor a deal that lowers tariffs in exchange for larger Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. Basically, people want bargaining power used to get a deal — not used as an end in itself. (nprillinois.org) ### Is this a partisan story? Yes, and the split is inside the GOP as much as between parties. The polling shows MAGA Republicans are much more likely to say the tariffs work, while other Republicans are far less convinced and line up closer to independents and Democrats on the economic downsides. That matters because it hints at a future Republican argument over China — hardline symbolism versus price-sensitive economics. (globalaffairs.org) ### What changed from a few years ago? The notable shift is not that Americans suddenly trust China. They do not. The shift is that higher prices now weigh more heavily than abstract arguments about reducing trade. NPR’s write-up notes that in 2020 and 2021, majorities were more open to cutting trade even if costs rose. In 2026, after years of inflation pressure, that appetite has faded. (globalaffairs.org) ### Bottom line? Americans seem to want a narrow version of toughness on China. Compete hard. Protect key industries. Negotiate from strength. But keep the shelves stocked and the prices down. For Washington, that is useful political space — but it is not a blank check for a new cold war. (globalaffairs.org) (nprillinois.org)