G20 growth slips
G20 GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in Q4 2025 from 0.9% the prior quarter, leaving annual growth for 2025 at 3.4% and signalling a broader global slowdown. (indexbox.io) Markets are now focused on upcoming institutional forecasts — including the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility — for clearer guidance on growth, inflation and jobs heading into spring. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate, released March 13, showed real GDP rose at a 0.7% annual rate in Q4 2025 and cited downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment as key contributors. (bea.gov) The Office for Budget Responsibility published its March 3 Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside the UK Spring Forecast and pared its 2026 GDP projection from 1.4% to 1.1%, while raising its unemployment profile after weaker late‑2025 data. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The OECD has scheduled an Interim Economic Outlook for March 26 that will update projections and trade‑policy risk assessments for the world and all G20 countries. (oecd.org) The IMF’s January WEO update put global growth at 3.3% for 2026, and the IMF is set to hold a World Economic Outlook press briefing during the Spring Meetings on April 14, when markets typically look for refreshed global projections. (imf.org) (imfconnect.org) An IMF analysis of G20 prospects flagged medium‑term G20 growth near 2.9% — the weakest since the 2009 Pittsburgh summit — and described the slowdown as broad‑based, with China among the largest contributors to the deceleration. (imf.org) Market moves underscored investor sensitivity: U.S. equity indices and Treasury yields reacted to the BEA Q4 revision, while UK gilts and sterling showed volatility around the OBR update, reinforcing why traders are focused on the coming OECD and IMF releases for fresh signals on growth, inflation and jobs. (cnbc.com) (msn.com)
