Inflation holds steady
The February CPI showed a 2.4% annual increase, matching expectations, but analysts warn that energy price shocks could push inflation higher this spring [https://cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-report-february-2026.html], [https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/11/business/inflation-report-cpi].
Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.1% annually, indicating that underlying price pressures remain contained. This suggests the Federal Reserve may hold off on interest rate hikes in the near term. However, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are creating uncertainty in energy markets. Crude oil prices have already jumped 15% this month, and further increases could translate to higher gasoline and heating oil costs for consumers. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that a sustained $10 increase in the price of oil would add 0.2 percentage points to the annual inflation rate. This could force the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy stance if inflation expectations begin to rise.
