UK trade still reeling from Trump tariffs

Tariffs are supposed to change behavior fast. The surprise here is how long the hangover lasted. New UK data shows the hit to trade with the United States did not fade after the first shock in April 2025 — it carried through to February 2026, even after London and Washington cut a partial deal. That matters because it turns a political headline into something more stubborn: companies really did change what they shipped, bought, and built. ### What actually fell? UK goods exports to the US, excluding precious metals, dropped by £1.5 billion in April 2025 after the tariffs landed — a 24.7% fall in one month. The Office for National Statistics says those exports then stayed “relatively low” through February 2026 rather than snapping back. That is the core of the story. The damage was not just a bad month. ### Why exclude precious metals? Because gold and other precious metals can swing trade numbers wildly and hide what is happening in the real economy. Strip those out, and you get a cleaner read on actual industrial trade — cars, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and the rest. In this case, the cleaner read still looks rough. The post-tariff drop is big enough that it changes the picture even without the noisy stuff. ### Which industries got hit hardest? Cars stand out. UK car exports to the US fell after the tariffs arrived and stayed below pre-tariff levels for the following year. Pharmaceuticals also weakened. That matters because these are not fringe categories — they are exactly the kinds of higher-value exports Britain wants to sell abroad. When those sectors stumble, the trade relationship feels smaller and less resilient than the headline diplomatic language suggests. ### Didn’t the UK and US cut a deal? They did — in May 2025. The deal reduced tariffs on a set number of British car exports and removed tariffs on steel and aluminium exports if supply-chain security conditions were met. But turns out a partial fix is still partial. The ONS data implies the agreement did not restore trade flows to where they were before the tariff shock. Some routes reopened, but not enough to reverse the broader slump. ### Why doesn’t trade bounce back quickly? Because supply chains are sticky. Once buyers shift to a different supplier, or exporters decide a market is too unpredictable, those decisions do not unwind overnight. A tariff works a bit like a road closure — even after one lane reopens ### Did this change the wider trade balance? Yes. Britain had been running trade surpluses with the US, but reporting around the new data says those surpluses flipped into deficits after the export slump. That is a big symbolic shift as well as an economic one. The US is a major UK trading partner, so when that corridor weakens, it shows up quickly in the broader numbers and in business confidence. ### So what is the real lesson? The real lesson is that tariffs are easier to announce than to unwind. Even when governments soften them later, exporters may still be stuck with lost customers, altered contracts, and more cautious investment plans. The ONS numbers make that visible in a very plain way — the shock arrived in April 2025, and the aftereffects were still there in February 2026. ### Bottom line This is no longer just a story about Trump-era tariff politics. It is a story about persistence. Britain’s trade with the US took a hit, a later deal only partly repaired it, and the data now shows how long a “temporary” tariff shock can keep distorting real commerce.